铝行业_供应或持续受限；进一步上调 2026-27 年盈利预测

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Aluminium Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Aluminium Sector and its supply-demand dynamics, highlighting the constrained supply and rising prices due to tight fundamentals [2][4][9]. Key Points Supply Constraints - China's aluminium industry capacity is capped at 45.2 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), currently operating at over 98% utilization [3][9]. - Planned capacity additions for 2026 include 200,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa) from Tianshan and 350 ktpa from Zhalv, with no new capacity expected for 2027 [3][9]. - Ex-China, new capacity is anticipated mainly from Indonesia, contributing 400 kt and 200 kt YoY in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][9]. Demand Growth - UBS forecasts global primary aluminium demand growth of 4% for both 2026 and 2027, while supply growth is expected to be only 1-2%, potentially leading to market deficits [4][9]. Price Forecasts - Aluminium price forecasts for China have been raised by 5% for 2026 and 7% for 2027, now projected at Rmb22,000/t and Rmb23,000/t, respectively [2][16]. - The global aluminium price is also expected to rise, with UBS increasing its LME aluminium price forecasts by approximately 15% [2][16]. Earnings Revisions - Net profit estimates for major companies in the sector have been revised upwards: - Hongqiao: +11% for 2026E, +16% for 2027E - Chalco: +14% for 2026E, +22% for 2027E - Tianshan: +12% for 2026E, +26% for 2027E [5][17][18][19]. Price Target Adjustments - Price targets (PT) for key companies have been adjusted significantly: - Hongqiao: Raised from HK$28.0 to HK$38.60 (implying a 10x 2026E PE) [5][17]. - Chalco-H: Increased from HK$8.60 to HK$13.10 [5][18]. - Chalco-A: Upgraded from HK$8.30 to HK$12.40 [5][18]. - Tianshan: Increased from Rmb12.60 to Rmb17.00 [5][19]. Investment Ratings - The report reiterates Buy ratings on Hongqiao, Tianshan, and Chalco-H, while upgrading Chalco-A to Buy from Neutral [5][18][19]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of corporate governance improvements and stable earnings delivery for Chalco, which supports the upgraded ratings [18]. - The aluminium market is expected to remain tight, with potential drawdowns in visible inventory supporting price increases [4][9]. Conclusion - The outlook for China's aluminium sector remains positive, driven by constrained supply, rising demand, and improved earnings forecasts for key players, making it an attractive investment opportunity.