风电整机商_风电利润率上行周期仍有空间

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the wind turbine Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) sector, particularly highlighting the performance of Nordex and Vestas in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in project margins and demand for onshore wind energy [1][2][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - Earnings Performance: Both Nordex and Vestas reported stronger-than-expected Q3 2025 earnings, primarily driven by improved project margins. This improvement is attributed to solid execution in a stable logistics environment, high-priced backlog deliveries, and fewer turbine quality issues [2][11]. - Historical Benchmarking: The margin recovery in Power Solutions since the 2022 low is compared to the previous upcycle from 2012-2016, suggesting potential for continued positive surprises in the upcoming year [3][14]. - Onshore Demand: Strong onshore order intake was reported, with Nordex securing 2.2GW and Vestas 4.6GW in Q3. The German market is expected to see over 11GW of auction volumes in 2026, indicating robust demand [4][15]. - Market Dynamics: The US market is anticipated to support onshore volumes towards 2030, with a clear opportunity for order intake in the next 12-24 months [4][15]. Company-Specific Highlights - Nordex: - Target price remains unchanged at EUR 33.00, with expectations for margin upticks in 2026 and strong free cash flow (FCF) supporting potential shareholder returns [5][52]. - The company is optimistic about the German onshore market, projecting 11.3GW of auctions in 2026, and is also focusing on opportunities in Canada and the US [51][52]. - Vestas: - Target price raised to DKK 190 from DKK 155, reflecting strong performance and positive market dynamics [5][44]. - The offshore segment is ramping up as planned, with expectations for positive margins in 2026. The service business is undergoing a turnaround, although it may take more time to fully realize improvements [45][46]. - Vestas is confident in the US onshore market, with a significant pipeline awaiting clarity on tariffs, which is crucial for negotiations with off-takers [45][46]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - Nordex Financials: - Revenue projections for 2025 are EUR 7.784 billion, with EBITDA expected to reach EUR 623 million. The company anticipates a first dividend payment in 2026 with a payout ratio of 25% [63][52]. - Vestas Financials: - Revenue for 2025 is projected at EUR 19.121 billion, with EBITDA of EUR 2.163 billion. The company is also targeting a dividend payout ratio of 25-30% [56][57]. Risks and Considerations - Market Risks: Potential downside risks include increasing logistics disruptions, tariff uncertainties in the US, and competition from Chinese manufacturers [40][55][50]. - Operational Risks: Vestas faces challenges in its service turnaround and must address backlog issues while managing warranty provisions that have peaked [45][46]. Conclusion - The wind turbine OEM sector is experiencing a positive margin upcycle, with both Nordex and Vestas positioned to benefit from strong onshore demand and improving project margins. The outlook for 2026 appears optimistic, supported by robust order intake and strategic market positioning. However, potential risks related to market dynamics and operational challenges remain pertinent [9][14][15].