中国 A 股股票策略_从资本支出和库存趋势视角评估反内卷政策进展

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the China A-shares Equity Strategy and the impact of the anti-involution policies initiated by the Chinese government in late Q2 2025, affecting various industries [2][34]. Key Points and Arguments Anti-Involution Policies - The anti-involution policy aims to shift competition from price and scale to quality, with a projected execution timeframe of about a decade [2]. - The policy is expected to support the CSI-300's EPS growth, with a bottom-up consensus estimate of 14.6% year-on-year for 2026 [2]. Capital Expenditure (Capex) and Inventory Trends - In Q3 2025, nine out of twelve industries reported year-on-year cuts in capex, indicating a trend towards quality-based competition [2]. - The hog, battery materials, dairy, and chemicals sectors are leading in destocking, with average inventory days decreasing by 13%, 9%, 6%, and 4% respectively [5]. - Capex reductions in these sectors were significant, with year-on-year drops of 20%, 45%, 22%, and 15% respectively [5]. Sector Performance - Battery materials and chemicals have been recognized for production cuts and ASP stabilization, outperforming the CSI-300 in the second half of 2025 [5]. - The coal, baijiu, lithium, cement, and solar sectors are facing inventory pressures due to softer demand against prior capacity expansions [6]. - The autos and logistics sectors are increasing capex while reducing inventories, with companies like BYD and Great Wall Motor pursuing aggressive overseas expansion [7]. Market Dynamics - The CSI-300 index is expected to perform well until the end of 2026, supported by shifts in household asset allocation towards equities [7]. - The battery manufacturer CATL is operating at nearly full capacity, indicating strong demand for power and energy storage batteries [7]. Fiscal Support and Government Initiatives - Targeted fiscal support from the Chinese government is seen as a potential catalyst for transitioning sectors from active to passive destocking [5]. - Various sectors, including autos, battery materials, and solar, have seen government initiatives aimed at stabilizing growth and curbing low-price competition [34]. Additional Important Insights - The dairy sector is focusing on high-end products to differentiate from competitors, while the hog sector is stabilizing prices through capacity control measures [34]. - The logistics sector is shifting from price wars to value-added services, with regulatory support to prevent below-cost dumping [34]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policies are reshaping competition across multiple sectors in China, with significant implications for capital expenditure, inventory management, and overall market dynamics. The focus on quality over quantity is expected to drive long-term growth and stability in the affected industries [2][5][7][34].