中国材料领域 - 确认储能系统需求-China Materials-China Trip Days 3 & 4 ESS Demand Confirmed

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the Energy Storage Systems (ESS) sector within the battery value chain in China, highlighting the demand outlook for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Demand Growth for ESS: - The demand for ESS is projected to grow significantly, with various players in the battery value chain confirming a bullish outlook for 2025 and 2026. Capchem (electrolytes) anticipates approximately 50% year-over-year (YoY) sales volume growth in 2026, while Nuode (copper foil producer) expects around 80% YoY growth [2][3]. - Shenzhen Senior forecasts a 50% YoY industry demand growth in 2026, although it expects only 20% YoY sales volume growth for itself [2]. 2. Investment Returns: - The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for ESS projects is attractive, averaging over 10%, with some regions reaching as high as 20%. This is supported by subsidies and power trading strategies [3]. 3. Material Demand and Supply: - A significant increase in metal demand is expected, with projections of over 300 GWh increase in demand for metals in 2026, indicating a potential supply-demand deficit [5]. - Specific metal consumption estimates include: - 40-60 kt of copper for every 100 GWh of ESS capacity, depending on the type of copper foil used. - 160 kt of aluminum for the same capacity, used in various components [9]. 4. Price Trends: - There are ongoing but mild price hikes for battery materials, with separators and copper foil prices expected to rise, particularly among second-tier battery makers. Top-tier makers will experience price increases last due to their stronger bargaining power [10]. - The price of lithium carbonate impacts battery cell costs, with a Rmb 0.02/Wh increase for every Rmb 10,000/ton rise in lithium carbonate prices [3]. 5. Capacity Expansion and Market Dynamics: - Battery materials companies are cautious about capacity expansion due to lessons learned from previous cycles, leading to slower growth in production capacity [11]. - There is a notable concern among battery producers regarding tight materials supply, prompting the establishment of supply guarantee contracts, which were rare in the past [12]. 6. Company-Specific Insights: - GEM Co Ltd aims to increase nickel shipments from 120 kt this year to 150 kt by 2026, with plans to further expand capacity to 300 kt by 2030 [13]. - Kedali is guiding for 30% YoY revenue growth in 2026, reflecting a conservative estimate compared to broader market expectations [14]. - BYD anticipates delivering over 1.5 million units overseas in 2026, with a focus on Europe, APAC, and Latin America [15]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the battery materials sector is optimistic, with all players in the value chain reporting high demand growth expectations for 2026 [2][5]. - The current market dynamics suggest a potential shift in pricing strategies and supply agreements as companies navigate the anticipated demand surge [10][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the ESS sector's growth prospects, investment returns, material demand, and market dynamics.