中国房地产月度追踪_新开工面积降至本轮下行周期以来（1-2 月除外）的月度最低水平-China Property Monthly Tracker_ New starts plunged to the lowest monthly level (excl Jan_Feb) since this downturn

Summary of China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese property market, highlighting significant declines in new property starts, sales, and construction activities, indicating a downturn in the sector. Key Points Market Performance - New starts in October 2025 fell to the lowest monthly level (excluding January and February) since the current downturn began [2][9] - Primary sales volume and value declined by 19% and 24% year-over-year (YoY), respectively, while construction activities (completion and new starts) plunged nearly 30% YoY [2][9] - Secondary sales volume also fell short of expectations, contributing to a broader weakening in market sentiment and income expectations [2][9] Price Trends - The average selling price (ASP) for properties continued to decline, with primary ASPs down 0.5% month-over-month (MoM) and secondary ASPs down 0.7% MoM in October [9][31] - The ASP in tier-1 cities showed a 0.3% decline for primary and 0.9% for secondary markets, indicating a divergence in pricing trends [9][31] Future Expectations - For November 2025, expectations include: 1. Continued price weakness, especially in secondary ASPs across all cities [3][11] 2. An expansion in the YoY decline for primary transaction volume and value, with new starts remaining weak [3][11] 3. A narrowing trend in secondary transaction volume YoY, but still recording substantial declines [3][11] 4. A further decline in land sales volume and a potential negative YoY change in land sales value [3][11] Developer Insights - Developers' land acquisition profitability improved slightly month-over-month in October, with land acquisition spending averaging 28% of contract sales, down from 54% in September [2][10] - The report notes that developers are likely to be less aggressive in land banking for the remainder of the year, having largely met their full-year land replenishment plans [18][10] Government Policies and Market Sentiment - The report highlights ongoing discussions regarding the removal of housing purchase restrictions in core districts of tier-1 cities, which could positively impact home purchases [4][10] - There is a noted deterioration in the demand-side strength score, which dropped to 37 out of 100, indicating a challenging environment for home purchases and secondary market performance [53][55] Construction and Investment Trends - Construction activities are expected to see a high single-digit percentage decline YoY for completions and a 30-40% decline for new starts in November [17][11] - Developers are expected to focus on smaller projects with better ASP visibility and easier product positioning, rather than larger land parcels requiring phased development [18][10] Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed summary of key market indicators, including: - GFA sold: 61 million sqm in October, down 18.8% YoY - Property sales: Rmb 0.6 trillion, down 24.3% YoY - ASP: Rmb 9,723/sqm, down 6.8% YoY - New starts: 37 million sqm, down 29.5% YoY - Completions: 37 million sqm, down 28.2% YoY [20][29] Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing significant challenges, with declining sales, construction activities, and prices. The outlook for November remains cautious, with expectations of continued weakness in both primary and secondary markets. Developers are adjusting their strategies in response to market conditions, and government policies may play a crucial role in shaping future demand.