2026 年中国股票策略展望 - 从跃升走向可持续-2026 China Equity Strategy Outlook Asia Pacific-From Leap to Sustain

Summary of the 2026 China Equity Strategy Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China equity market, particularly the MSCI China and Hang Seng Index. - 2025 was a strong year for Chinese equities, with both indices rising over 30% YTD, making China one of the best-performing major equity markets in 2025 [2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Stabilization and Sustainability in 2026: - 2026 is viewed as a year of stabilization following the high returns of 2025, with a focus on sustainability [2][13]. - The report anticipates moderate EPS growth of 6% and a 12-month forward P/E range of 12-13x for MSCI China [3][19]. 2. Index Targets: - New December 2026 targets are set at: - Hang Seng: 27,500 (2% upside) - HSCEI: 9,700 (2% upside) - MSCI China: 90 (3% upside) - CSI300: 4,840 (4% upside) [3][20]. 3. Market Dynamics: - The report highlights several factors influencing the market: - Quality and sustainability of corporate earnings [2][13]. - Limited valuation upside after a significant re-rating [2][16]. - Persistent deflationary pressures expected through 2026 [2][17]. - Global macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding US growth paths [2][18]. 4. Sector Preferences: - A barbell strategy is recommended, overweighting high-quality internet and tech leaders while underweighting sectors like Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Energy [5][43]. - Select exposure to dividend plays is maintained for stable cash returns [5][43]. 5. Investment Flows and Liquidity: - Positive net flows and liquidity are expected for both A-share and offshore markets, driven by consumption stimulus and housing inventory digestion [4][41]. - Strong interest from global investors is noted, with expectations for continued support for the Hong Kong market [4][41]. Additional Important Insights 1. Earnings Growth Forecast: - Earnings growth is expected to re-accelerate to 10% in 2027, as the economy emerges from deflation [19][52]. - The report indicates a slight deterioration in earnings delivery for 2025, leading to a lowered earnings growth forecast of 5% for that year [51]. 2. Geopolitical Considerations: - An interim truce between the US and China is seen as beneficial for alleviating market concerns [13][47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sustained geopolitical stability for market performance [26][29]. 3. Valuation Insights: - Current valuations for MSCI China are seen as fair, trading at 13.1x forward P/E, which is above the 5-year average [16][19]. - The bull-bear spread for MSCI China indicates a wide range of potential outcomes, from a -34% bear case to a +30% bull case [33][34]. 4. Key Trade Ideas for 2026: - Focus on thematic lists and tactical trades related to Stock Connect Southbound inclusion beneficiaries and anti-involution initiatives [5][44]. 5. Market Performance Metrics: - The report includes performance metrics for various indices, highlighting the strong performance of MSCI China and Hang Seng in 2025 [14][22]. This comprehensive outlook provides a detailed analysis of the expected trends and dynamics in the China equity market for 2026, emphasizing the importance of strategic stock selection and sector positioning amidst a backdrop of macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical considerations.