2026 年亚洲经济展望 - 从科技到非科技- 复苏范围扩大-2026 Asia Economics Outlook-From Tech to Non-Tech

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on the recovery of both tech and non-tech exports, and their implications for GDP growth and inflation trends in 2026 [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Broadening Recovery: The recovery in Asia is expected to broaden as non-tech exports, which account for 75% of overall exports, begin to recover due to easing trade tensions. This is anticipated to positively impact capital expenditure (capex), job creation, and wage growth, leading to increased discretionary consumption [3][19][29]. 2. GDP Growth Projections: Asia's real GDP growth is projected to rise from 4.3% in 4Q25 to 4.7% in 4Q26. For Asia excluding China, nominal GDP growth is expected to rebound from 5.5% in 4Q25 to 7.2% in 4Q26 [3][41]. 3. Inflation Trends: Disinflationary pressures are expected to ease in 2026, with underlying inflation rising modestly across the region. Asia excluding Japan's headline inflation is projected to remain within central banks' comfort zones, while China's exit from deflation is not expected until 2027 [4][55][58]. 4. Central Bank Policies: Central banks in Asia are nearing the end of the rate cut cycle, with most expected to hold rates steady in 2026. Japan is anticipated to implement one more rate hike in December 2025 before pausing [5][6][38]. 5. Risks to Growth: Upside risks include stronger private sector spending in the US and accelerated AI adoption, while downside risks involve a potential mild recession in the US affecting Asia's non-tech exports and possible larger stimulus measures from China [7][38]. Additional Important Insights 1. Tech vs. Non-Tech Exports: While tech exports have been strong, they are capital-intensive and have limited spillover effects on the broader economy. Non-tech exports are crucial for driving overall economic growth and consumption [15][16]. 2. Capex Momentum: The expected recovery in non-tech exports is likely to lead to an acceleration in capex momentum, with fixed capex growth projected to recover to 3.7% in 1H26 and further to 4.4% in 2H26 [29][30]. 3. Consumption Recovery: A turnaround in exports and capex is expected to improve labor market conditions, leading to a recovery in discretionary consumption segments. The slowdown in consumption has been attributed to cyclical factors rather than household balance sheet dynamics [32][36]. 4. Country-Specific Outlooks: - China: Real GDP growth is expected to improve but nominal GDP growth will remain subdued due to ongoing property sector weakness [48]. - India: Anticipated to have the strongest nominal GDP growth in Asia at 10.7% by 4Q26, driven by tax cuts and regulatory easing [49]. - Japan: Expected to maintain strong nominal GDP growth supported by expansionary fiscal policies [50]. - Korea: Consumption is projected to recover due to improved domestic demand and fiscal easing [51]. - ASEAN: Economic performance is expected to be bifurcated, with Malaysia and Singapore growing robustly while Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand face challenges [52]. Conclusion The Asia-Pacific economic outlook for 2026 indicates a broadening recovery driven by non-tech exports, with positive implications for GDP growth and inflation. Central banks are expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, while country-specific dynamics will influence individual economic performances across the region [3][4][5][6][7].