2026 年中国经济展望 - 向低通胀缓慢迈进-2026 China Economics Outlook-Slow March to Lowflation

Summary of the 2026 China Economics Outlook Industry Overview - Industry: Chinese Economy - Focus: Economic growth, inflation trends, fiscal policy, and investment dynamics Key Points Economic Growth Projections - Nominal GDP Growth: Expected to be subdued at 4.1% in 2026, with a rebound to 4.8% in 2027 [3][10][11] - Real GDP Growth: Projected at 4.8% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027, down from approximately 5% in 2025 [10][11] - CPI and Deflation: CPI is expected to remain low due to property market drag and weak wage growth, with a gradual shift from deflation to lowflation anticipated by 2027 [4][80] Inflation Dynamics - GDP Deflator: Expected to be -0.7% in 2026, turning slightly positive at 0.2% in 2027 [80] - CPI Trends: Core CPI is projected to remain subdued until 2H26-2027, with gradual improvements expected as property market pressures ease [80][82] Policy and Fiscal Measures - Fiscal Policy: Modestly expansionary with an augmented fiscal deficit expected to widen by 0.5ppt of GDP, focusing on technology localization and infrastructure [5][55] - Monetary Policy: Anticipated policy rate cuts of 10-20bps and RRR reductions of 25-50bps in 2026 to support fiscal measures [59] - Public Spending: Shift towards public services with growth in public consumption expected to reach 5.3% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027 [25][26] Investment Trends - Investment Growth: Real gross fixed capital formation growth projected to remain soft at 2.4% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, influenced by anti-involution policies and local government financing constraints [31][32] - Manufacturing Investment: Expected to grow at low single digits due to overcapacity and deflationary pressures [33][36] - Property Sector: Continues to face significant challenges with high inventory levels and weak demand, leading to a contraction in property investment [35][41] Consumption Patterns - Household Consumption: Expected to slow to 4.2% in 2026, with a rebound to 4.4% in 2027 as labor market conditions improve [15][19] - Social Welfare Spending: Gradual increases in social welfare spending anticipated, focusing on education, healthcare, and elder care [18][25] Risks and Challenges - Economic Risks: Potential for renewed trade tensions and a US recession could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances and deflationary pressures [6] - Implementation Challenges: Central government support for housing may face practical challenges in execution [5][56] Global Context - Export Dynamics: Net exports expected to contribute 1.3ppt to growth in both 2026 and 2027, despite a slight moderation in export growth due to earlier front-loading effects [41][42] - Global Demand: Stable global growth projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, supporting China's export resilience [43] AI and Technology Investment - AI-Driven Growth: Anticipated capex boom in AI-related sectors expected to offset property market drag by 0.2-0.3ppt of real GDP in 2026-27 [47][48] Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese economy in 2026 reflects a cautious approach to growth, with a focus on gradual rebalancing and addressing deflationary pressures while navigating global uncertainties and domestic challenges [68][79]