大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2026经济与市场展望 _ 纪要

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the United States and China, along with insights into the Asian technology sector and investment opportunities. Core Insights and Arguments U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy may experience a slight slowdown in the first half of 2026, but AI investments are expected to provide support, leading to gradual recovery in the second half of the year [1][3][5] - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a dovish stance, with interest rates expected to be lowered to 3%-3.25% before entering a wait-and-see phase [1][3] - The U.S. government is implementing a high-growth, high-inflation strategy to address rising debt, similar to post-World War II approaches [1][5] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 7,800 points by the end of 2026, with an annualized earnings growth of 15% [1][9] Chinese Economic Outlook - China is expected to transition from deflation to low inflation between 2026 and 2027, with fiscal policies likely to be strengthened in response to real estate challenges [1][4][6] - The introduction of a "Chinese version" of mortgage rates through fiscal subsidies is anticipated to stimulate consumption and maintain financial stability [1][8] - The nominal GDP growth for China is projected to remain just above 4% for the third consecutive year, with a real growth rate of 4.8% in 2026 [1][4] Asian Technology Sector - The outlook for Asian technology exports remains optimistic, with growth expected to extend beyond the tech sector into investment and consumption [2][23] - Countries such as India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea are highlighted as having strong growth potential due to non-tech export recovery [2][26] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to favor U.S. equities, followed by Japanese and European stocks, while maintaining a lower allocation to emerging markets [1][9] - The Chinese stock market is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio of around 13, with a projected earnings growth of 6% for the Minsheng China Index in 2026 [1][10][12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for a significant wealth effect from the stock market recovery is noted, but the overall impact on consumer spending is limited due to the high proportion of wealth tied to real estate [1][18] - The challenges facing local government finances are highlighted as a key factor affecting overall investment levels in China [1][20] - The anticipated recovery in the Asian economy is expected to be gradual, with GDP growth projected to rise from 4.3% in Q4 2025 to 4.7% in Q4 2026 [2][25] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the economic outlook and investment strategies for the U.S., China, and the broader Asian region.