产业链视角跟踪玻纤粗纱及电子布提价效果

Summary of Conference Call on Glass Fiber and Electronic Fabric Industry Industry Overview - The glass fiber industry is experiencing a significant structural differentiation in demand for 2025, with ordinary products facing oversupply and weak terminal demand [2][3] - The rough sand market is described as "ice and fire," with poor operating conditions for ordinary winding direct sand and downstream glass fiber reinforced plastic manufacturers [1][2] Key Points Market Demand and Supply - Demand for small number products (300, 200, and 135 winding direct sand) remains stable until the end of November, but a significant decline is expected in December [3] - Domestic demand is shifting towards exports to countries like the UAE and Brazil due to shorter payment cycles [5] - The overall production and sales of manufacturers have been maintained at around 90%, but social inventory has increased from September to October, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream clients [3][14] Price Trends - Prices for small and large rough sand have increased from 3,050 CNY/ton to 3,250-3,300 CNY/ton since September, with the lowest purchase price for traders and deep processing factories around 3,250 CNY/ton [6][1] - The price increase in September was supported by low price recovery and some inventory buildup, while October saw a rebound in demand for small number products, supporting large number product prices [8][12] - A new round of price increases by large manufacturers at the end of October aims to boost market confidence, although actual implementation remains uncertain [12][14] Production Adjustments - Large processing enterprises are operating at full capacity with a high export ratio (60%-70%), while small manufacturers are struggling with order differentiation [7][11] - Small manufacturers are adjusting their production structure to focus on small number products due to market demand, with some shifting to fine sand and low dielectric ultra-fine sand [11] Future Outlook - The forecast for 2026 indicates a potential narrowing of domestic thermoplastic demand due to subsidy cancellations and policy changes, while wind power demand is expected to maintain growth but with reduced volume [19][22] - Export volume is projected to increase from 2 million tons in 2025 to 2.04 million tons in 2026, while imports are expected to decrease from 110,000 tons to 100,000 tons due to increased domestic high-end product capacity [20][19] Electronic Fabric Market - Electronic fabric prices have seen a general increase, with specific products rising by 300 to 500 CNY, driven by tightening supply conditions [17] - Future price adjustments for electronic fabric are expected to be gradual, with potential increases before the end of the year [18] Trade Barriers and Market Adaptation - Trade barriers have caused some orders to experience delays, prompting manufacturers to explore new markets and channels to mitigate risks [28][29] - The industry is cautiously optimistic about demand recovery in 2026, with emerging markets like the Middle East, South America, and Southeast Asia expected to become significant growth points [29] Conclusion The glass fiber and electronic fabric industries are navigating a complex landscape characterized by fluctuating demand, price adjustments, and strategic shifts in production. The outlook for 2026 remains cautious, with potential challenges from trade barriers and changing market dynamics.