金融“反内卷”如何影响利率

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the financial industry, particularly focusing on the impact of "anti-involution" policies on interest rates and the bond market [1][5][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Interest Rate Trends - Current fundamentals and liquidity conditions support a downward trend in interest rates, despite banks reducing long-term bond holdings due to pressure from performance indicators and profit realization needs [1][2][11]. - The average deposit cost for listed banks is expected to decrease by another 13 basis points by the end of next year, alleviating net interest margin pressure [1][7]. 2. Impact of Anti-Involution Policies - The anti-involution policy aims to slow the rapid decline of loan rates while accelerating the decrease in deposit burdens. However, this may lead to insufficient financing demand and a reduction in loan volumes [5][6]. - The policy is expected to focus on optimizing resource allocation within the financial system rather than significantly altering the current credit issuance landscape [8]. 3. Asset-Liability Dynamics - A decrease in corporate deposits is causing a slowdown in asset-liability growth, potentially exacerbating the "asset shortage" phenomenon. While household deposits are increasing, the lack of investment channels further intensifies this issue [9][10]. - The financial system's reliance on household savings rather than loan-derived credit makes it challenging to implement balance sheet reductions effectively [8]. 4. Market Conditions and Predictions - The bond market remains volatile, with 10-year and 30-year treasury yields showing little change. However, a downward trend in rates is anticipated due to weakening fundamentals and a contraction in both investment and consumption growth [3][12]. - By year-end, the 10-year treasury yield is expected to recover to a range of 1.6% to 1.65% [3][13]. 5. Investor Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a barbell strategy, focusing on long-term aggressive instruments such as 30-year treasuries and bonds with maturities of 5 to 10 years [3][13]. Other Important Insights - The reduction in deposit rates is not expected to lead to significant outflows from the banking system, as broader interest rates are also declining, and banks maintain their settlement functions [10]. - The overall market is anticipated to experience a smoother downward trend in interest rates as funding supply slows, further intensifying the asset shortage [12].