固收：年内债券投资思路

Summary of Conference Call on Bond Investment Strategy Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond investment strategy for the year, particularly in the context of low interest rate expectations and limited downward space for both long-term (10-year government bonds) and short-term (1-year time deposits) rates [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Interest Rate Expectations: The current market has low expectations for interest rate cuts in the short term, which limits the downward movement of both long and short-term interest rates [2][3]. 2. Investment Strategy for Year-End: Investors should focus on institutional allocation intentions and the performance of the equity market. An increase in institutional allocation may compress the spread between government bonds and policy bank bonds [1][3]. 3. Credit Bonds vs. Government Bonds: The spread between credit bonds and policy bank bonds is thin, while the spread between credit bonds and government bonds is wider. Short-term credit bonds are positioned low, but there is still room for three to five-year credit bonds [4][5]. 4. Monetary Policy Outlook: The monetary policy is expected to maintain a loose growth-oriented approach next year, with limited impact from the current tightening of liquidity. The probability of easing measures this year is low, but the central bank may prepare for policy easing in Q1 next year [6][7]. 5. Portfolio Construction: For absolute return portfolios, a defensive stance with slightly lower duration is recommended, while relative return portfolios should seize opportunities such as the compression of spreads between policy bank bonds and government bonds [7][8]. 6. Short-term vs. Long-term Strategies: For short-term trading, focus on mid-term policy bank bonds due to clear returns. For long-term holding, consider 10-year secondary capital bonds, but be aware of their weaker liquidity [8][9]. 7. Spread Compression Opportunities: There are notable opportunities for spread compression between policy bank bonds and government bonds, which investors should monitor for potential profits [10][11]. 8. Selection of Policy Bank Bonds: Investors are advised to choose the main bond 215 over the new bond 220 for 10-year policy bank bonds due to liquidity considerations [11]. 9. Changes in Investment Strategy: Recent recommendations have shifted towards a more cautious approach as the year-end approaches, adjusting portfolios to mitigate risks associated with potential market volatility [14]. Other Important Considerations - The impact of new redemption regulations and changes in fund buying power for policy bank bonds should be closely monitored, as these factors will influence market trends at year-end and into next year [6][7]. - The use of hedging strategies, such as constructing combinations of 5-year secondary capital bonds with futures, can help mitigate risks and enhance returns [13].