电动出行的未来之战- 2025 The Battle for the Future of Electric Mobility

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Electric Mobility sector within the Asia Pacific region, highlighting the competitive landscape and future trends in electric vehicle (EV) adoption and sales [9][10]. Core Insights - Passenger Vehicle (PV) Sales Forecast: - Estimated 28.5 million units of PV sales in 2026, reflecting a 5% year-over-year decline [10][12]. - Breakdown of PV wholesale volume for 2024-2027: - 2024: 27.553 million units - 2025: 29.925 million units - 2026: 28.454 million units - 2027: 29.354 million units - Domestic sales are projected to decline by 7% in 2026, while exports are expected to grow by 4% [13]. - New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Sales Forecast: - Anticipated 16.5 million units of NEV sales in 2026, representing an 8% year-over-year increase [17]. - Breakdown of EV wholesale volume for 2024-2027: - 2024: 12.281 million units - 2025: 15.201 million units - 2026: 16.486 million units - 2027: 18.136 million units - Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) are expected to see growth rates of 10% and 6% respectively in 2026 [18]. - Market Dynamics: - Retail discounts have stabilized in Q3 2025 amid an anti-involution campaign, indicating a shift in pricing strategies [14]. - The average time car owners spend in their vehicles is approximately 1.5 hours per day [25]. Export Insights - China's Vehicle Exports: - Asia and Europe accounted for over 65% of China's vehicle exports in 2025 [21]. - Breakdown of vehicle export units by region: - Asia: 28% - Europe: 19% - North America: 6% [22]. OEM Market Share - Chinese OEMs hold approximately 13% of vehicles sold outside the US and China, indicating a growing international presence [25]. Future Focus Areas for Auto OEMs - Key areas of focus for automotive OEMs include: - AI-enabled smart cockpit technologies - Development of humanoid robots - Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles - Autonomous vehicles [26]. Conclusion - The electric mobility sector in the Asia Pacific is poised for significant changes, with a mixed outlook on traditional PV sales and a robust growth trajectory for NEVs. The strategic focus on technology and international market expansion will be crucial for OEMs navigating this evolving landscape.