2026 年 CoWoS 产能扩张：台积电 3 纳米产能提升后跟进-2026 CoWoS Expansion to Catch Up After TSMC's 3nm Capacity Increase

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Semiconductors - Focus: CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) technology and its expansion in response to TSMC's capacity increase Key Points 1. Capacity Expansion: CoWoS capacity is expected to expand by over 20% by 2026, reaching at least 120-130 kilowafers per month (kwpm) due to TSMC's 3nm capacity increase [1][2][4] 2. TSMC's Strategy: TSMC plans to add 20 kwpm of 3nm front-end wafer capacity, which is a significant driver for the CoWoS capacity expansion [2][4] 3. Service and Equipment Vendors: - Positive outlook for CoWoS equipment vendors such as AllRing and ASMPT, as well as service vendors ASE and KYEC [1][4][8] - AllRing is noted as the main supplier for TSMC, with a stock trading at 19x 2026 estimated EPS, considered undemanding [8] - ASMPT is the sole supplier of TSMC's CoWoS-L on substrate TCB, trading at 21x 2026 estimated EPS, below its historical average of 27x [8] 4. Customer Base: Continued support for CoWoS customers, particularly AI ASIC customers requiring 3nm capacity through Alchip and GUC's design services [8] 5. Construction and Installation Timeline: The new capacity will be added in AP8 P1 and P2, contingent on the timelines for fab construction and equipment installation [2][3] Additional Insights - Market Dynamics: The expansion is seen as a positive development for the CoWoS supply chain and AI semiconductor customers, indicating a robust demand for advanced packaging solutions [4][8] - Valuation Methodology: The report includes a residual income model for valuation, with key assumptions such as a cost of equity of 9.2% for ASMPT and 9.8% for ASE, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for these companies [9][10][11] - Risks: Potential risks include slower-than-expected global economic growth, weaker demand from Chinese OSAT companies, and competition in the advanced packaging tools market [13][16] Conclusion The conference call highlights a significant opportunity for growth in the CoWoS segment driven by TSMC's capacity expansion. The positive outlook for equipment and service vendors, along with a strong customer base in AI, positions the industry favorably for the coming years. However, attention must be paid to potential risks that could impact this growth trajectory.