2025-11-18 09:41Summary of Key Takeaways from the China Technology Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Technology, specifically focusing on PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and AI software development - Companies Discussed: Victory Giant (VGT), Shennan Circuits, Kingsoft Office, Kingdee Victory Giant (VGT) Demand and Growth Outlook - Management maintains a positive outlook on demand for AI PCBs, despite a temporary moderation in earnings growth in 3Q25 due to a large AI customer's product transition [2][4] - Anticipated continued expansion of Gross Profit Margin (GPM) in 2026 driven by higher contributions from AI PCBs and product upgrades from AI customers [2] Capacity Expansion Plans - VGT is on track to enhance its HDI (High Density Interconnect) and HLC (High Layer Count) capacities, primarily in Huizhou this year, with expansions planned in Thailand and Vietnam next year [3] - Current HDI capacity is valued at approximately CNY 7-9 billion, HLC capacity at over CNY 9 billion, with total capacity projected to reach CNY 35 billion by the end of 2025, CNY 80-90 billion by 2026, and CNY 100-120 billion+ by 2027 [3] Revenue Contribution and Customer Development - AI PCBs currently account for about 50% of VGT's revenue, with consumer electronics and automotive electronics each contributing around 15% [4] - VGT is the largest AI PCB supplier, holding approximately 50% wallet share with a major AI customer, and expects a significant order from a large CSP (Cloud Service Provider) exceeding CNY 10 billion for 2026 [4] Competitive Advantages - VGT's strong management and execution have resulted in an industry-leading yield rate, allowing for faster production ramp-up compared to competitors [5] Shennan Circuits Supply Constraints and Revenue Contribution - The PCB supply remains constrained, with communication contributing around 40% of PCB sector revenue, predominantly from fixed-line communication [6] - AI is expected to contribute roughly 30% of PCB revenue [6] IC Substrate Business Update - Memory customers contributed approximately 40% of revenue for BT-based substrates in 3Q25, with strong growth momentum [7] - The company is experiencing stable demand for ABF-based IC substrates, with plans to narrow losses in the coming years [7] Capacity Expansion Plans - Supply for AI PCB business is constrained as the company ramps up existing factories in Thailand and Jiangsu, with planned capacities in Shenzhen, Wuxi, and Guangzhou [8] Price Hikes - Both PCB and substrate products are facing cost pressures due to upstream material price hikes, and the company is negotiating with CCL suppliers to adjust prices [10] Kingsoft Office AI User Growth - The company's focus has shifted to AI user growth, with monthly active users increasing from approximately 20 million at the beginning of 2025 to nearly 50 million by 3Q25 [11] - The launch of AI 3.0 in July has been promoted to around 50 million users, with significant growth potential within its ~600 million user base [11] Growth Outlook - Management anticipates a 10%+ revenue CAGR for the Consumer business from FY25-30E, with AI users expected to exceed 100 million next year [12] - The enterprise business (WPS 365) is projected to deliver a 30% revenue CAGR over FY25-30E, competing in a CNY 400-500 billion market [12] On-Premise Software Business - Strong demand in 3Q25 is expected to continue into 2026, driven by government initiatives for domestic substitution of PC and software products [13] Kingdee Earnings Turnaround - Kingdee is on track for an earnings turnaround in FY25, targeting low-teens year-on-year revenue growth, with subscription revenue growth around 20% year-on-year [14] AI Monetization Efforts - The "Kingdee Cloud" brand has been upgraded to "Kingdee AI," with plans for deeper integration of AI agents into cloud offerings [14] Conclusion - The technology sector, particularly in PCB and AI software, shows promising growth potential with significant capacity expansions and increasing revenue contributions from AI-related products. Companies like VGT, Shennan Circuits, Kingsoft Office, and Kingdee are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, although they face challenges such as supply constraints and rising material costs.