估值、人工智能、软件与半导体、超大规模企业资本支出- 重新审视 HOLT 中 4 大关键科技争议-Valuations, AI, Software vs. Semis, Hyperscaler Capex – Revisiting 4 Key Tech Debates in HOLT

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Technology Sector - Key Focus: Analysis of technology valuations, AI performance, software versus semiconductors, and hyperscaler capital expenditure trends Core Insights 1. Technology Valuations: - Global technology trades at a 36x HOLT Economic P/E, which is in the 75th percentile of historical valuations, only exceeding 40x during the dot-com bubble [7][8][12] - The sector has shown strong fundamentals, with earnings revisions outpacing other sectors since summer, leading to forecasts of all-time high returns [2][12] 2. AI Performance: - The AI Winners basket has returned +46% in 2025, while the AI Risk basket has declined by 33% [3][20] - Despite a decade-high valuation premium for AI Winners, near-term fundamentals remain strong for both groups, with AI Winners expected to achieve a CFROI of 20% [23][20] 3. Software vs. Semiconductors: - Software has underperformed semiconductors this year, with recent sell-side earnings upgrades favoring semiconductors [4][30] - In the software sector, Palantir (PLTR) leads in revenue growth expectations, while Adobe (ADBE) is priced for the lowest long-term sales growth [4][33] 4. Hyperscaler Capital Expenditure: - Hyperscaler capital expenditure (Capex) is projected to reach an all-time high of $780 billion in 2026, with R&D spending expected to increase by 40% [5][37] - Companies like META, MSFT, and ORCL are forecasted to see a decline in CFROI in the near term, but overall economic profit for hyperscalers is expected to reach $400 billion in 2026, driven by growth [5][45][43] Additional Important Insights 1. Market Sentiment: - The technology sector has a disproportionate number of firms ranking in the top quintile on HOLT's Momentum Factor, indicating strong market sentiment [9][12] - CFROI revision breadth has been strong, with the largest tech firms outpacing others in earnings revisions [12][16] 2. Valuation Screening: - A screening of tech companies with strong price performance and rising CFROI revisions identified 71 attractive stocks, including NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Broadcom [18] 3. Sales Growth Expectations: - Market-implied sales growth for AI Winners is expected to be in double digits over the next decade, contrasting with low single digits for many AI Risk firms [26][28] 4. Investment Recommendations: - Companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Broadcom are rated as "Buy," while Adobe is rated "Neutral" [64] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the technology sector, particularly in relation to AI, software, semiconductors, and hyperscaler investments.