2026 年美股展望：滚动复苏已至-US Equity Strategy-2026 US Equities Outlook The Rolling Recovery Is Here

Summary of the US Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the US equity market outlook for 2026, emphasizing a "rolling recovery" following a three-year rolling recession that ended in April 2025 [5][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. S&P 500 Price Target Increase: The S&P 500 price target has been raised to 7,800, supported by strong earnings growth and a favorable valuation environment [5][56]. 2. Earnings Growth Forecast: Expected earnings per share (EPS) growth includes $272 for 2025 (12% growth), $317 for 2026 (17% growth), and $356 for 2027 (12% growth) [5][56]. 3. Sector Upgrades: Upgrades to "overweight" (OW) status for Consumer Discretionary Goods and Healthcare sectors, while small caps are expected to outperform large caps [5][6][56]. 4. Economic Recovery Indicators: Evidence of recovery includes a 2.2% revenue beat rate for the S&P 500 and 8% EPS growth for the median stock in the Russell 3000, marking the strongest growth in four years [5][36]. 5. Monetary Policy Outlook: Anticipation of more significant rate cuts than currently expected, leading to an accommodative monetary policy environment that supports earnings growth [5][6][31]. 6. Risks to Forecast: Near-term risks include potential monetary policy not being dovish enough and tighter liquidity affecting high momentum areas [6][31]. Additional Important Insights 1. Historical Context: The current economic environment is compared to previous cycles, noting that the economy had less slack at the start of President Trump's second term compared to his first [7][8]. 2. Policy Implications: The administration's policies are seen as rebalancing the economy, focusing on reducing the current account deficit and encouraging investment over consumption [60][61]. 3. Inflationary Regime: The US economy is viewed as being in an inflationary regime, with expectations of "hotter but shorter" economic cycles compared to the past [66][70]. 4. Investment Strategy: Emphasis on high-quality stocks as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, with a focus on sectors that can maintain pricing power [76][77]. Conclusion - The outlook for US equities in 2026 is optimistic, driven by strong earnings growth, favorable monetary policy, and sector-specific upgrades. However, potential risks related to monetary policy and economic conditions remain a concern. The overall strategy suggests a focus on high-quality investments that can withstand inflationary pressures and economic volatility [5][6][56][76].