中国 - 10 月需求疲软加剧-China_ Demand weakness deepens in October

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Chinese Economy and Key Economic Indicators - Focus: Economic performance in October 2025, including industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment (FAI), and property sector dynamics Core Insights and Arguments 1. Industrial Production: - Industrial production growth slowed to 4.9% y-o-y in October from 6.5% in September, below market expectations of 5.5% [2][7] - The slowdown was attributed to distortions from the mid-autumn festival and Golden Week holiday [2][7] - Average industrial production growth for September-October was 5.7%, still above 5.5% in July-August [2] 2. Retail Sales: - Retail sales growth inched down to 2.9% y-o-y in October from 3.0% in September, slightly above market consensus of 2.8% [3][12] - Catering services saw significant growth, rising to 3.8% y-o-y from 0.9% in September, aided by the extended holiday [3][14] - Sales of home appliances and autos contracted sharply, with home appliances down 14.6% and autos down 6.6% [3][15] 3. Fixed Asset Investment (FAI): - FAI contracted further to -11.2% y-o-y in October from -6.8% in September, significantly below market expectations [4][16] - The decline was broad-based, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments also showing negative growth [4][16] - The property sector remains a primary drag on FAI, with property investment down 23.1% y-o-y [5][20] 4. Property Sector Dynamics: - The property sector's decline deepened, with new home sales by value down 24.1% and by floor space down 18.6% [5][20] - New home starts and completions also worsened, dropping 29.6% and 28.4% respectively [5][21] - Housing prices continued to decline, particularly in tier-1 cities, with existing home prices down 0.95% m-o-m [5][22] 5. Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: - The focus of policy may shift towards ensuring short-term stability and addressing deflation, with fiscal expansion likely to be prioritized [1] Additional Important Insights - Export Performance: Average growth of export-delivered value was 0.9% y-o-y in September-October, an improvement from 0.2% in July-August [2] - Sector-Specific Trends: - Manufacturing investment growth declined to -6.7% y-o-y in October, influenced by the anti-involution campaign [17] - Infrastructure investment growth also dipped to -12.1% y-o-y [19] - Consumer Behavior: The contraction in durable goods sales indicates a shift in consumer spending patterns, with a notable decline in home appliances and autos [15] This summary encapsulates the critical economic indicators and trends affecting the Chinese economy as of October 2025, highlighting areas of concern and potential policy responses.