传统存储芯片：人工智能驱动持续需求-Old Memory AI Driving Sustained Demand

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Semiconductors - Focus: Memory products, particularly DDR4 and NAND Flash technologies Key Points Demand and Pricing Trends - DDR4 Demand: DDR4 is critical not only for datacenter switches but also for GPU servers, CPU servers, and storage servers, indicating a structural demand that could lead to significant pricing hikes into Q1 2026 [3][10] - HDD/eSSD Contribution: HDD and eSSD are expected to account for approximately 7% of global DDR4 demand in 2025, with a significant rise anticipated in 2026 due to strong demand [4] - Spot Pricing Concerns: The market is overly concerned about high spot pricing for DDR4 16Gb, with expectations of upside due to low channel inventory [4] NAND Flash Market Dynamics - MLC NAND Production Cuts: Samsung's reduction in MLC NAND production could decrease global capacity by over 20%, leading to potential double-digit price increases in Q1 2026 [5] - NOR Flash Supply Issues: An undersupply of 3-5% for NOR Flash is expected to persist into 2026, driven by rising demand for CPU/GPU servers and TWS earbuds [5] Company-Specific Insights - Top Picks: Winbond is highlighted as a top pick, with expectations of significant gross margin expansion in 2026 due to pricing hikes across memory product lines [6][10] - Price Target Adjustments: Price targets for Winbond, Nanya, PSMC, and Macronix have been raised, reflecting improved market conditions and pricing power [8][10] - Winbond's Earnings Estimates: EPS estimates for Winbond have been increased by 2% for 2025, 36% for 2026, and 18% for 2027, driven by stronger pricing for specialty DRAM and NOR Flash [28] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Valuation Methodology: Winbond's price target is raised to NT$88, using a P/B multiple methodology, reflecting strong DRAM pricing upside and sustainable NOR pricing hikes [31][36] - Market Sentiment: The consensus rating distribution shows 89% of analysts rating the stocks as overweight, indicating strong market confidence [42] Risks and Considerations - Market Volatility: The semiconductor industry is characterized by high earnings volatility, which could impact stock valuations [31] - Potential Headwinds: There are anticipated headwinds for the logic business, which could affect overall market dynamics [43] Additional Insights - Long-term Opportunities: Engagement with multiple foundry partners and customers in the CUBE segment is expected to yield meaningful opportunities in 2026 [43] - Regional Exposure: Winbond has significant revenue exposure to Mainland China, which constitutes 40-50% of its market [46] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the semiconductor industry's dynamics, particularly in memory products, and the outlook for key players in the market.