金属观察：“十五五” 期间政策指向结构性趋紧市场，中国铝需求仍具韧性-Metal Matters_ China’s aluminium demand still resilient as policy points to a structurally tighter market during 15th FYP_

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the aluminum industry in China, particularly in the context of the 15th Five-Year Plan and its implications for supply-demand dynamics in metals [1][6][50]. Core Insights and Arguments - Price Forecast: Aluminum price is upgraded to $2,950/ton for the next 0-3 months, with a target of $3,000/ton in 6-12 months, reflecting a bullish market sentiment ahead of expected physical deficits [1][12]. - Demand Resilience: China's aluminum demand remains resilient, with a 5% year-to-date growth and a 2.8% year-on-year increase in September 2025, despite uneven demand across sectors [3][17]. - Sectoral Performance: Construction demand is declining (-2.8% year-on-year), while energy transition sectors like transportation and power are driving growth, with decarbonization-related demand increasing by approximately 20% year-on-year in September [3][19]. - Solar Sector Contribution: The solar sector is projected to contribute 0.2-0.3% to aluminum demand growth from 2025-2026, with exports to Belt and Road economies being a significant factor [4][24][30]. - Tolling Trade Dynamics: Rising aluminum tolling activities indicate a structural shift in trade patterns, allowing China to absorb external surpluses through its downstream processing system [5][39][45]. Additional Important Insights - 15th Five-Year Plan Implications: The plan emphasizes a more demand-intensive yet supply-disciplined cycle, with expectations of capacity ceilings in copper smelting and alumina refining [6][55]. - Investor Sentiment: Recent price rallies are attributed to stronger investor interest and macroeconomic catalysts, despite a broadly balanced physical market until 2027 [2][12][13]. - Policy Support for Exports: China's policy framework supports solar manufacturing and aims to expand international markets, reinforcing aluminum and copper consumption in renewable energy sectors [34][61]. - Long-term Outlook: The aluminum market is expected to remain balanced until real physical deficits emerge later in the decade, with potential for price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and structural demand growth [12][13][45]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the aluminum industry in China.