全球存储技术：上调 NAND 闪存预期，四季度 DRAM 平均售价承压，韩国小盘股风险-Global Memory Tech-Weekly theme NAND forecast raised, 4Q DRAM ASP cap, Korea small-cap risk

Summary of Conference Call on Global Memory Technology Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the NAND and DRAM memory markets and their forecasts for the upcoming quarters and years, with a focus on key players like Kioxia and Korean chipmakers. Key Points NAND Market Insights - Global NAND sales forecasts for 3Q and 4Q 2025 have been raised by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively, driven by a 3.9% and 2.5% increase in bit shipment projections, despite a near 1% decrease in ASP assumptions [1][8] - Kioxia reported strong bit growth of high-30% QoQ in its September 2025 quarter, but with a weaker ASP decline of low-single digits [1][8] - The outlook for 4Q 2025 indicates minimal bit growth due to low inventories, while ASP is expected to increase by 10% +/- for commodity NAND [1][8] - The NAND industry is projected to enter a mid to upcycle stage starting from 2H 2025, with global NAND sales expected to grow 28% YoY in 2026, following declines of -37% in 2023 and +2% in 2025 [1][8] DRAM Market Insights - DRAM prices are anticipated to be strong in 4Q 2025, with expectations of a 15-20% ASP hike from major Korean chipmakers, although a memory expert suggests potential increases of 30-40% excluding HBM [2][8] - Current spot prices for DRAM are significantly higher than contract prices, with 16Gb DDR5 spot prices up 17% WoW and ~300% QoQ [2][6] - The DRAM market is expected to grow by 46% YoY in 2025, driven by Hynix's HBM, while NAND is projected to grow at a low-single digit rate in 2025 but recover strongly in 2026 [7][8] Concerns Regarding Korean Semiconductor Supply Chain - There are concerns about the performance of Korean small-cap semiconductor companies such as Seoul Semi, Soulbrain, and Hanmi Semi, primarily due to weak LED demand and price competition from Chinese suppliers [3][8] - The impact of HBM on material demand is considered low, and capital expenditures are focused on upgrades rather than backend processes [3][8] Memory Chip Inventory Levels - As of October 2025, inventory levels for both DRAM and NAND are reported to be lower than normal, at 3-4 weeks, compared to the typical 1-2 months [10][11] Product Shipment Projections - Projections for various tech products indicate a recovery in shipments, particularly for servers, SSDs, and smartphones, with a notable CAGR of 7.3% for 5G smartphones from 2024 to 2027 [9][8] Additional Insights - The spot market for memory chips continues to show robust activity, with significant price increases observed in October and early November [6][8] - The overall memory market is expected to see a blended ASP increase, with DRAM and NAND ASPs projected to fluctuate based on market conditions [7][8] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call regarding the NAND and DRAM markets, highlighting both opportunities and risks within the semiconductor industry.