中国：10 月财政支出增速下滑，财政收入增速小幅回升-China_ Fiscal expenditure growth slumped in October, though fiscal revenue growth rose slightly

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the fiscal situation in China, highlighting trends in fiscal revenue and expenditure as well as property-related government revenue. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Fiscal Revenue Growth: On-budget fiscal revenue growth increased slightly to 3.2% year-on-year (yoy) in October from 2.6% yoy in September, despite a broad-based weakness in activity data [1][3][7] 2. Fiscal Expenditure Decline: Fiscal expenditure growth fell significantly to -9.8% yoy in October from +3.1% yoy in September, marking the lowest growth rate since December 2021 [2][7][9] 3. Property-Related Revenue Weakness: Property-related government revenue saw a notable decline, with land sales revenue dropping -27.5% yoy in October compared to -0.9% yoy in September. On-budget property-related tax revenue also remained weak at -1.4% yoy [2][8][9] 4. Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD): The AFD metric narrowed in October, indicating a less supportive fiscal policy for growth. The AFD ratio was -10.6% of GDP on a 3-month moving average basis [1][3][9] 5. Government Spending Trends: The government’s fiscal "spend-through" ratio decreased slightly to 98.5% in October from 98.8% in September, suggesting a slowdown in fund deployment [9][10] 6. Impact on Fixed Asset Investment (FAI): The deceleration in government spending growth, particularly in infrastructure, may have negatively impacted FAI growth, although other factors may also contribute to this trend [10] Additional Important Insights - Non-Tax Revenue Contraction: Non-tax revenue experienced a significant contraction of -33.0% yoy in October, widening from -11.4% yoy in September, primarily due to a high base effect [7] - Overall Government Revenue: Total government revenue growth slowed to -0.6% yoy in October from +3.2% yoy in September, while government expenditure growth dropped to -19.1% yoy from +2.2% yoy [9] - Future Fiscal Policy Outlook: There is a downside risk to the AFD forecast for this year (projected at 12.0% of GDP), but expectations for continued fiscal expansion into next year remain, as indicated by recent policy communications [10]