全球电池供应链：数据中心储能（BESS）蓬勃发展-Global Battery Supply Chain_ APAC Focus_ Data center storage (BESS) boom

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) market, particularly in the context of the U.S. electricity supply and demand dynamics, driven by the growth of data centers and renewable energy sources [4][5][27]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Electricity Supply and Demand Imbalance: - The U.S. is projected to face a significant electricity supply/demand imbalance, with peak demand expected to rise from 767 GW in 2024 to 915 GW by 2030, reflecting a 3.0% CAGR, while supply grows at only 1.7% CAGR [27][28]. - Data centers are anticipated to account for 60% of incremental electricity demand growth from 2025 to 2030 [5][15][36]. 2. BESS Demand Forecast: - The demand for BESS in the U.S. is raised by 21% to 177 GWh by 2030, which is significantly ahead of consensus estimates [4][5]. - In an upside scenario, demand could reach 280 GWh by 2030, driven by increased data center loads and a higher share of renewables [5][24]. 3. Government Subsidies: - U.S. storage subsidies of up to $145/kWh cover approximately 70% of BESS capital expenditures, which is crucial for meeting long-term demand [6][22]. 4. Korean Battery Makers' Position: - Korean battery manufacturers are expected to capture an 85% market share in the U.S. BESS market by 2030, with volume projections for 2025-2030 revised upward by 11%-62% [6][26]. 5. Data Center Growth: - The Tech-6 companies (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle, and Apple) are leading the expansion of data centers, which are projected to account for 10% of total U.S. electricity demand by 2030 [36][60]. - If these companies grow at a 25% CAGR, their additional demand will surpass the entire U.S. utility-scale solar industry by 2028 [36][60]. 6. Renewable Energy Integration: - By 2030, variable renewable energy (VRE) sources like solar and wind are expected to account for 47% of total U.S. electricity generation, necessitating increased BESS capacity to manage intermittency [41][45]. Additional Important Insights 1. Regulatory Environment: - Various states are implementing regulations to ensure grid reliability amid rising data center demand, including special tariffs and efficiency standards [54][55]. - Texas has introduced strict grid rules requiring data centers to curtail during emergencies and pay for transmission costs [57]. 2. Cost Competitiveness: - Hybrid solar-battery projects are becoming cost-competitive with fossil fuels, with a weighted average LCOE of $0.079/kWh for hybrid projects, comparable to gas generation costs [67][68]. 3. BESS Duration and Capacity: - The average duration of BESS is expected to increase from 3.1 hours in 2024 to 4.1 hours by 2030, which is essential for managing the growing share of intermittent energy supply [23][46]. 4. Investment Opportunities: - Companies like LG Energy Solution and LOPAL are highlighted as top picks to capitalize on U.S. BESS growth due to their advanced capacity expansion plans [7]. 5. Market Dynamics: - The report emphasizes the need for a diversified clean energy resource mix to meet the growing electricity demand driven by data centers and the transition to renewable energy [60]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the evolving landscape of the BESS market and its implications for the U.S. electricity supply and demand dynamics.