储能持续超预期，看好设备需求弹性

Summary of Conference Call on Lithium Battery Industry and Energy Storage Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry is currently in a new upward cycle, with leading manufacturers operating at full capacity. Energy storage is identified as the core growth driver, with an expected overall growth of 25%-30% for lithium batteries by 2026, driven by a 20% increase in power batteries and a 40%-50% increase in energy storage [1][4]. Key Insights - Capital Expenditure and Expansion: Leading manufacturers are expected to maintain high capital expenditures, with overall expansion projected to reach 400 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30%-40%. Material supply is expected to remain tight, leading to a sustained increase in utilization rates and an anticipated profit growth of over 30% across the industry [1][5]. - Short-term Market Dynamics: The energy storage market is experiencing robust demand due to preemptive purchases driven by tax incentives for new energy vehicles. This has resulted in supply constraints among leading manufacturers, with some orders being pushed to 2026. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see strong production, particularly in energy storage, while power batteries may face price transmission challenges [1][6]. - Investment Recommendations: Focus on materials sectors (e.g., hexafluorophosphate, VC, lithium iron phosphate), companies with strong pricing power in the battery sector, and emerging technology firms with capital expenditure opportunities [1][7]. Market Trends - Secondary Market Growth: The energy storage market in second- and third-tier cities is entering a positive fundamental turning point, supported by high vigilance in energy cell pricing. The trend of price reversal is expected to continue, benefiting subcomponents like fuses, relays, and integrated busbars [1][8]. - Future of Energy Storage Batteries: The outlook for energy storage batteries is promising, with potential price increases supported by upstream price hikes. Leading companies are projected to have valuation multiples between 20-25 times, with significant profit expectations for 2026 [1][9]. Performance of Mid-Tier Manufacturers - Mid-tier manufacturers are currently undervalued but can benefit from the spillover effects of the energy storage boom. Companies like Ruifulan are expected to see a significant turnaround in profitability, while others like Tianneng Power and Shuangdeng Co. are also positioned to benefit from volume and price increases [1][10]. Material Sector Insights - The material sector is under scrutiny for price increases and supply tightness, particularly for lithium hexafluorophosphate. Companies like Huafeng and Tianqi are highlighted for their strong positions in this area [1][11]. Equipment Sector Developments - The lithium battery equipment sector is currently in a favorable valuation range, with an expected order growth of 25%-30% in 2026. The demand for Chinese lithium battery equipment is anticipated to grow due to the global supply chain shift and increased focus on electric vehicles by European and American automakers [1][12][13]. Recommendations for Specific Companies - Haimuxing: Holds over 50% market share within the CATL ecosystem, with significant order growth expected in 2026 [1][17]. - Lianying Laser: A key player in welding equipment for CATL, with substantial order potential due to increased capital expenditure [1][17]. - Xian Dao Intelligent: Expected to secure significant incremental orders, benefiting from its strong position as a supplier to CATL [1][17]. Conclusion - The lithium battery and energy storage sectors are poised for significant growth, driven by robust demand and capital expenditures. Companies within these sectors, particularly those focusing on innovative technologies and materials, are expected to see substantial valuation increases and market performance in the coming years [1][19].