能源未来 - 把握史上最大规模 LNG 供应浪潮-Energy Tomorrow_ Catching The Largest Ever LNG Supply Wave

Summary of LNG Supply Wave Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global natural gas market, particularly the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, and provides a ten-year outlook on gas prices driven by the largest ever LNG supply wave [1][2]. Key Insights - LNG Supply Growth: New LNG export projects have increased global LNG supply by 5% year-over-year, with expectations of a further 10% and 6% increase in 2026 and 2027 respectively [11][12]. - Price Forecasts: - For 2026/27, TTF prices are forecasted at 29 EUR/MWh and 20 EUR/MWh, while JKM prices are expected to be $10.50/mmBtu and $7.30/mmBtu [11][49]. - By 2028/29, TTF and JKM prices are projected to drop to 12 EUR/MWh and $4.40/mmBtu respectively, with Henry Hub prices at $2.70/mmBtu [1][41]. - US LNG Export Cancellations: The excess LNG supply is anticipated to lead to US LNG export cancellations in 2028/29, which will rebalance the global LNG market [1][2][3]. - Market Dynamics: The report suggests that as global LNG supply continues to outpace demand, particularly in Asia, European gas storage will face congestion, leading to lower prices and potential cancellations of US exports [1][3][4]. Long-term Outlook - Post-2030 Demand: Significant incremental LNG demand is expected post-2030, driven by China's decarbonization efforts and increased infrastructure investment in Asia, which may lead to a re-tightening of global LNG markets [1][5][42]. - Price Recovery: By 2031, Henry Hub prices are expected to return to the $4-$4.50/mmBtu range, with TTF and JKM also projected to rise above 30 EUR/MWh and $10/mmBtu respectively by 2033 [1][43][44]. Risks and Considerations - China Policy Risks: The report highlights that China's decarbonization policies pose a significant risk to the demand outlook for natural gas [1][44]. - US Production Response: The forecast assumes that US gas production will respond to price signals, with a projected Henry Hub price of $4.60/mmBtu in 2026 to incentivize production growth [15][36]. Additional Insights - Historical Context: The report draws parallels to the 2020 US LNG export cancellations, suggesting that similar price dynamics could occur in the future if oversupply conditions arise [3][29]. - Storage Capacity: The report estimates that by the end of October 2026, NW European gas storage will be over 90% full, indicating a significant shift in market balance [11][12]. This comprehensive outlook provides critical insights into the future of the LNG market, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors and stakeholders in the energy sector.