小米公司- 2025 年第三季度 EPS 因电动汽车销量强劲及非运营收益超预期；更新我们对关键投资者争议问题的看法；买入

Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - Company: Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) - Market Cap: HK$1.1 trillion / $136.0 billion - Enterprise Value: HK$859.5 billion / $110.6 billion - 12-Month Target Price: HK$53.50, current price HK$40.78, implying 31.2% upside potential [1][4][7] Key Financial Highlights - 3Q25 Revenue: Grew by 22% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb46.0 billion, exceeding expectations [1][28] - Adjusted Net Profit: Increased by 81% yoy, driven by higher AIoT gross profit margin (GPM) and investment gains [1] - Smartphone Revenue: Declined by 3% yoy, with total shipments of 43.3 million units [28] - AIoT Revenue: Grew by 6% yoy to Rmb27.6 billion, with GPM increasing by 3.2pp yoy to 23.9% [47] Core Themes from Management 1. Smartphones: - Focus on increasing average selling price (ASP) and market share in 2026 despite rising memory costs and declining industry shipments [2] - GPM forecasted at 10.1% for 4Q25 and 8.8% for 2026 [18][37] - Market share in China increased to 14.9% in 3Q25 [28] 2. AIoT: - Prioritizing profitability over growth, with overseas revenue expected to drive growth [2] - Connected devices reached over 1 billion, with a 20% yoy increase [47] 3. Electric Vehicles (EV): - Achieved an IFRS net profit of Rmb0.7 billion in 3Q25, with a full-year delivery target of 350,000 units [2] - Increased shipment forecast to over 400,000 units in 2025 [19] 4. Artificial Intelligence (AI): - Released multiple multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) to enhance smart home capabilities [2] 5. New Retail Strategy: - Focus on operational efficiency and store optimization in China, with continued expansion of Mi Home stores overseas [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue Forecasts: 2025E revenue expected at Rmb365.9 billion, with slight adjustments for 2026E and 2027E [3][16] - Net Profit Forecasts: Adjusted down by 4-5% for 2026E-27E due to smartphone GPM pressure [3] - EPS Growth: Expected to grow from Rmb1.07 in 2025E to Rmb2.23 in 2027E [16] Valuation Insights - Valuation Metrics: - P/E ratio projected at 16.6x for 2024, increasing to 23.3x in 2025E [13] - Free cash flow yield expected to decline from 7.2% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2026E [13] - SOTP Valuation: Target price of HK$53.5 based on sum-of-the-parts analysis, with significant contributions from smartphones, AIoT, and EV segments [20] Risks and Considerations - Market Conditions: Potential challenges from rising memory costs and competitive pressures in the smartphone market [18][37] - AIoT Growth: Domestic sales pressure noted during Singles' Day, with expectations for growth primarily from overseas markets [19] - EV Segment: Continued focus on new models and manufacturing capacity to meet growing demand [19] Conclusion - Investment Recommendation: Maintain a "Buy" rating with a favorable risk-reward outlook for investors, despite potential near-term challenges [19][20]