2025-11-19 01:50Summary of Geely Automobile Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Geely Automobile Holdings - Industry: China Autos & Shared Mobility - Stock Rating: Overweight - Current Price: HK$17.00 (as of November 18, 2025) - Price Target: HK$24.00, representing a 41% upside potential Key Points Financial Performance and Projections - Geely aims for a 30% unit profit growth in 2026, supported by a favorable overseas sales mix, scale benefits, and cost savings following the privatization of ZEEKR [1][2] - The company targets a 20% market share growth in China by 2026, compared to approximately 9% year-to-date in 2025 [1] - Geely anticipates 50-80% growth in overseas sales in 2026, with 300,000 units of NEV exports expected, up from 110,000 in 2025 [1] Gross Profit Margin (GPM) Insights - Management expects GPM expansion in Q4 2025 after a decline in Q3 due to product transitions and higher discounts from inventory destocking [3] - Lynk & Co's GPM is projected to return to 15-16% in Q4, up from 11% in Q3 2025 [3] - ZEEKR's GPM is expected to improve with a higher sales mix of models 009 and 9X [3] Operational Efficiency - Geely has reduced its payable cycle by 24 days to 87 days in Q3 2025, with most suppliers now on a 60-day payment cycle and small-to-mid suppliers on a 30-day cycle [4] - The management indicated that the impact on operating cash flow (OCF) from this change is manageable [4] Market Capitalization and Valuation Metrics - Current market capitalization stands at Rmb156,470 million [7] - Projected revenue for 2026 is Rmb383,001 million, with an EBITDA of Rmb28,816 million [7] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 8.4 in 2024 to 6.3 in 2027 [7] Risks and Considerations - Upside risks include potential vehicle purchasing stimulus extensions and stronger-than-expected profitability from key products [13] - Downside risks involve a notable slowdown in domestic vehicle demand and expanding losses in NEV businesses due to price competition [13] Conclusion Geely Automobile Holdings is positioning itself for significant growth in both domestic and international markets, with a strong focus on profitability and operational efficiency. The company's strategic initiatives and favorable market conditions could provide substantial investment opportunities moving forward.