小米公司 - 2025 年第三季度盈利再创新高，但面临存储成本逆风-Xiaomi Corp-Another Historical High in Earnings in 3Q25, but Headwind from Memory Cost

Summary of Xiaomi Corp Earnings Call Company Overview - Company: Xiaomi Corp - Industry: Technology Hardware - Market Cap: US$133.79 billion - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: HK$62.00, with a 52% upside from the current price of HK$40.78 Key Financial Highlights - 3Q25 Adjusted Net Profit: Rmb11.311 billion, up 81% YoY and 4% QoQ, marking a historical high quarterly net profit [2][8] - Revenue: Rmb113.121 billion, 22% increase YoY, slightly above estimates [7] - Gross Profit Margin: Improved to 22.9%, up 2.5 percentage points YoY [7] - Smartphone Revenue: Decreased by 3% YoY to Rmb46.0 billion, slightly below forecasts [6][7] - EV Revenue: Increased 100% YoY to Rmb29.0 billion, exceeding forecasts by 2% [6] - AIoT Revenue: Grew by 6% YoY to Rmb27.6 billion, 1% above estimates [6] - Internet Services Revenue: Rose 11% YoY to Rmb9.4 billion, 2% above estimates, with overseas services reaching Rmb3.3 billion, up 19.1% YoY [6] Core Insights and Arguments - Memory Cost Impact: Management acknowledged that rising memory costs will be a significant headwind for smartphone margins in upcoming quarters. The company plans to implement mix adjustments and cost control measures to mitigate this impact [2][4] - EV Growth Potential: The accelerated delivery and shorter lead times for new EV models are expected to drive stock performance in the next 3-6 months [2][4] - ASP Adjustments: The company anticipates that the average selling price (ASP) increases will only partially offset the rising memory costs [2] Margins and Operating Metrics - Smartphone Gross Margin: Declined to 11.1%, down 0.6 percentage points YoY [6][7] - AIoT Gross Margin: Improved to 23.9%, up 3.2 percentage points YoY [6][7] - EV Gross Margin: Improved to 25.5%, although it declined 1 percentage point QoQ [6][7] - Operating Income: Reported at Rmb6.719 billion, a 28% increase YoY [7] Risks and Considerations - Downside Risks: Concerns regarding smartphone gross margin pressure due to inventory destocking and weak demand, as well as increased competition in the EV market [12] - Upside Risks: Better-than-expected orders and customer feedback for new EV models, and strong volume contributions from offline expansion in China [12] Conclusion Xiaomi Corp has demonstrated strong financial performance in 3Q25, with significant growth in adjusted net profit and revenue, particularly in the EV and Internet services segments. However, challenges from rising memory costs and smartphone margin pressures could impact future performance. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential growth driven by new EV models and strategic cost management measures.