2025 年亚太峰会 - 峰会前瞻：中国重回焦点-Asia Pacific Summit 2025-Summit Preview China back in focus

Summary of the Asia Pacific Summit 2025 Conference Call Industry and Company Focus - Industry: Global Economics and Investment Strategies - Company: Morgan Stanley Key Points and Arguments Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook anticipates moderate global growth and continued disinflation as the base case, with the US being a critical swing factor due to resilient consumption and AI-driven productivity [1][8] - Asia's real GDP growth is projected to accelerate from 4.3% in Q4 2025 to 4.7% in Q4 2026, driven by non-tech exports, improved capital expenditure, labor market conditions, and consumption [1][8] China’s Economic Policy - China's reflation is expected to be gradual, with modestly expansionary and supply-centric policies, including anticipated rate and RRR cuts [1][8] - Spending will focus on tech localization and infrastructure, with slow progress on rebalancing and social welfare support [1][8] Investment Recommendations - Strong performance is expected in risk assets, particularly US and Japanese equities, due to favorable policy and AI-driven fundamentals [1][8] - In Asia, a preference for Japan over emerging markets is recommended for 2026, with Chinese equities likely stabilizing after strong returns in 2025 [1][8] Corporate Themes and Trends - The conference will address four major global themes: Tech Diffusion, Multipolar World, Future of Energy, and Longevity [2] - Ongoing trends in Asia include China's Emerging Frontier, The New India, Singapore at 60, and Korea Renaissance [2] Keynote Speakers - Notable speakers include Chee Hong Tat (Minister for National Development, Singapore), Teo Chee Hean (Chairman, Temasek Holdings), and Sebastian Thrun (Founder of Google X and Waymo) [3] Market Positioning - Morgan Stanley recommends tight market-risk positions versus benchmarks, indicating a cautious approach to market volatility [1][8] - The firm highlights a preference for Japan within its coverage universe, suggesting a strategic focus on Japanese equities [1][12] Earnings Forecasts - The forecast for TOPIX EPS for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is ¥185 (+9%), ¥198 (+7%), and ¥225 (+14%) respectively, indicating a positive outlook for Japanese equities [13] Asset Allocation - Morgan Stanley's asset allocation recommendations include a focus on equities, particularly in the US, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, while maintaining a cautious stance on government bonds and credit [9] Other Important Content - The conference will feature various panel discussions and presentations from Morgan Stanley analysts across different regions, providing insights into global economic trends and investment strategies [3][14][15] - The agenda includes discussions on navigating post-tariff growth divergence, the role of AI in various sectors, and the implications of geopolitical dynamics on investment strategies [14][15][17][18]