中国快递 - 2025 年 10 月业务量增长放缓；行业整合加速

Summary of China Express Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Express - Date: November 18, 2025 - Key Focus: Volume growth slowdown and industry consolidation Key Takeaways Volume Growth and Revenue - Overall express volume in China increased by 7.9% YoY in October, a decrease from 12.7% in September [2][11] - Intra-city parcel volume saw a decline of 7.9% YoY in October compared to a 5% decline in September [2] - Inter-city parcel growth slowed to 9.5% YoY in October from 15% in September [2] - International parcel growth slightly improved to 1.2% YoY from a 3.1% YoY drop in September [2] - Revenue growth for the industry slowed to 4.7% YoY in October, down from 7.2% in September [2][11] Average Selling Price (ASP) - The industry ASP fell by 3% YoY and 0.9% MoM [3][11] - Specific declines in ASPs were noted in Guangdong (Rmb0.28 or -4.1% YoY) and Zhejiang (Rmb0.14 or -3.1% YoY) [3] - Month-over-month, ASPs in Guangdong dropped by 1%, while those in Zhejiang increased by 3% [3] Market Concentration - The concentration ratio of the top eight players (CR8) reached 87.8% in October, an increase of 2.6 percentage points YoY and 0.9 percentage points MoM [4][11] - Leading players are gaining market share amid the slowdown, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [11] Additional Insights - The slowdown in volume growth is attributed to "anti-involution" trends affecting the market [11] - Despite the overall ASP decline, leading players are reportedly improving their ASPs month-over-month [11] Conclusion The China Express industry is experiencing a significant slowdown in volume growth and revenue, alongside a notable decline in ASPs. However, the market is consolidating, with leading players increasing their market share. The industry faces challenges from anti-involution trends, which may impact future growth prospects.