铝盐、锌合金——大宗商品热点解读

Summary of Zinc Alloy Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the zinc alloy market in China for the year 2025, highlighting price trends, supply-demand dynamics, and industry applications [1][5][9]. Key Points Price Trends - The overall price of zinc alloy in China showed a downward trend in 2025, with the highest price recorded at 25,389 CNY/ton in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.54%, and the lowest at 22,907 CNY/ton in September, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 7.55% [1][5]. - Factors influencing price fluctuations include global macroeconomic instability, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and a supply increase coupled with weak demand [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply pressure increased in 2025 due to the release of new production capacity from smelting plants, while downstream demand remained weak, leading to an oversupply situation [7]. - The operating rate decreased from 64.54% in 2023 to 61% in 2025, with a notable decline during the Spring Festival due to delays in resuming operations [7]. - Import volumes of zinc alloy decreased in 2025, primarily from South Korea, Australia, and Japan, while exports surged in April due to consumption subsidies and export policies, reaching 1,281.714 tons [8]. Processing Fees - Processing fees for zinc alloys increased, with fees for die-casting No. 3 ranging from 400 to 950 CNY/ton and No. 5 from 1,000 to 1,500 CNY/ton, indicating differentiated pricing strategies based on product specifications [6]. Industry Applications - Zinc alloy applications are diverse, with approximately 45% used in the construction industry, benefiting from real estate completion and renovation projects [9]. - The automotive industry accounts for about 21% of zinc alloy usage, with a shift towards high-strength and corrosion-resistant materials due to lightweight demands [9]. - The home appliance sector represents 13% of the market, driven by consumption upgrades from policies promoting the replacement of old appliances [9]. Future Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment may see positive influences from U.S. trade policy changes, but challenges remain due to potential supply-demand imbalances and the impact of new smelting capacities [10]. - The overall demand for zinc alloy may face downward pressure, particularly in traditional sectors, while the performance in peak seasons is expected to be weaker than in previous years [10]. Regional Production - Major production regions in China include East China (29%), Central China (21%), and South China (18%), with significant companies like Zhuzhou Smelting Group and Yunnan Chihong Company serving the southern market [4]. Conclusion - The zinc alloy market in China for 2025 is characterized by fluctuating prices, increased supply pressures, and diverse applications across various industries. The outlook remains cautious due to potential oversupply and weak demand in traditional sectors [1][10].