中美新老经济分化加剧，债牛趋势更为确定

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the economic divergence between the US and China, highlighting the acceleration of the new and old economy split, particularly in the context of the 2025 economic outlook and its implications for 2026 [1][6][21]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Divergence - The US economy is facing "three highs" issues: high inflation, high interest rates, and high wages, which are pressuring traditional businesses while benefiting a few leading tech firms in the new economy [1][7][9]. - China's stock market reflects new economic growth, but its contribution remains low, with traditional sectors like real estate experiencing significant declines, leading to a historic first instance of zero investment growth in 2025 [1][11][21]. Market Predictions - Predictions for 2026 emphasize the need to avoid linear extrapolation from 2025 data, as structural changes and market expectations may lead to different economic paths [2][5]. - The overall performance of various asset classes in 2025 was positive, but the domestic bond market showed weakness, indicating caution in projecting trends for 2026 based solely on past performance [3][4]. Challenges in the US Economy - The US consumer-driven economy is under pressure from declining employment, low consumer confidence, and rising delinquency rates on loans, with non-farm employment data showing negative growth [8][9]. - The impact of AI on the economy is significant but concentrated in a few sectors, limiting its overall contribution to GDP and employment growth [9]. China's Economic Dynamics - The new economy in China is primarily driven by manufacturing investments, with local governments increasing spending on emerging industries under national policy guidance [12]. - The real estate sector's decline is accelerating, which is expected to continue affecting overall economic growth negatively in the coming years [11][21]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - In 2025, fiscal policy was aggressive, supporting economic growth, but signs of a slowdown in fiscal support are emerging, with expectations of reduced government spending in 2026 [25][27]. - The current monetary policy environment is relatively loose, with potential for further easing, especially in light of the stable RMB exchange rate, which allows for more flexibility in monetary policy [36][38]. Market Valuation and Risk Premium - Global stock valuations are at historical highs, with risk premiums indicating a high level of market uncertainty, although not at the extreme levels seen during the internet bubble [15][16]. - The relationship between the stock and bond markets is evolving, with both potentially coexisting despite differing influences from the new and traditional economies [13][41]. Trade Dynamics - China's trade surplus reached a historical high, accounting for nearly half of the global surplus, which may lead to increased international trade tensions [22][23]. - Expectations for trade friction in 2026 remain high, with potential challenges for export orders continuing to affect economic performance [24]. Additional Important Insights - The records highlight the importance of understanding the structural changes in both the US and Chinese economies, particularly the implications of AI and traditional industry pressures [6][9]. - The anticipated decline in fiscal support and the need for monetary policy adjustments in 2026 are critical for investors to consider when evaluating market opportunities and risks [27][30]. - The interplay between stock and bond markets suggests that shifts in investor sentiment could lead to increased capital flows into bonds if stock valuations decline [41].