行业2026年度投资策略：“反内卷”为盾，需求为矛，化工有望迎来新一轮景气周期

Summary of the Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, a state that has persisted for over a year, with leading companies showing poor performance and price differentials indicating low market conditions [1][3][4] - Capital expenditure and fixed asset investment growth have significantly slowed down, leading to reduced capacity for traditional chemical products [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The necessity of "anti-involution" arises from the high concentration of China's manufacturing industry, the short-term difficulty in recovering real estate demand, and diminishing marginal effects of capturing international market share [1][5] - If anti-involution is not implemented, it could lead to long-term losses for state-owned enterprises, negatively impacting local governments and the banking system [1][5] - Current oil prices around $60 are neutral for the chemical industry, while coal prices are at historical median levels, meaning cost impacts are no longer the primary concern [1][6][8] - The market cycle in the chemical industry is determined by both supply and demand, with supply-side reforms capable of triggering turning points, while demand dictates the cycle's height [1][9][10] - Future years are expected to see a historic turning point in key metrics for China's manufacturing sector, including ROE, gross margin, and net profit [1][11] Important Developments - Since July, the Central Financial Committee has emphasized addressing the issue of involution, marking a significant turning point for the chemical sector, with chemical ETFs rising by 40%-50% since then [1][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" explicitly includes comprehensive measures to address involution-style competition, reflecting the government's commitment to this issue [1][12] - The state has shifted its policy focus from energy consumption control to carbon emission control, indicating stricter management of future expansions [1][13] Micro-Level Changes - Recent changes at the micro level include investigations by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology into loss-making industries, with guidance on anti-involution measures [1][14] - State-owned enterprises are being urged to lead the anti-involution efforts, with companies like PetroChina and Sinopec beginning to close outdated facilities [1][14] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on leading companies in the petrochemical and coal chemical sectors, as these are the first targets for national restructuring [1][15] - Sub-industries with high operating rates but average profitability, such as polyester filament, PTA, and spandex, are also recommended for attention [1][16] - The refrigerant sector is highlighted as a benchmark for successful anti-involution, currently valued low and worth monitoring [1][16] Future Outlook - The development rhythm of the chemical industry is expected to continue focusing on self-discipline and anti-involution actions until the end of the year, with a significant evaluation period around March-April 2026 [1][17] - Different types of investors are encouraged to consider leading petrochemical and coal chemical companies to avoid missing out on the overall market trend, while also exploring flexible sub-industries for potential gains [1][18]