2025-11-20 02:16Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) Earnings Review Summary Company Overview - Company: Kuaishou Technology - Ticker: 1024.HK - Market Cap: HK$270.8 billion / $34.8 billion - Industry: China Games, Entertainment & Healthcare Tech Key Financial Highlights - 3Q25 Performance: Kuaishou reported a profit beat in 3Q, driven by disciplined cost efficiency - 4Q25 Guidance: Guidance is largely in-line with expectations on ads/GMV growth, with profit outlook raised due to effective S&M spending control [1][12] - Revenue Estimates: - 2025E Revenue: RMB 142,035.2 million (previously RMB 142,787.2 million) - 2026E Revenue: RMB 157,020.2 million (previously RMB 157,593.0 million) [6][20] - EPS Estimates: - 2025E EPS: RMB 4.79 (previously RMB 4.67) - 2026E EPS: RMB 5.40 (unchanged) [6][20] Core Insights 1. Advertising Growth: - 3Q ads grew by 14%, with domestic ads up 16% YoY, outpacing the industry - AI LLMs/OneRec technology contributed an additional 4-5% YoY growth in ads this quarter [12][19] - Expected ads growth of 12-13% YoY into 4Q and low-teens% for 2026 [12][19] 2. Investment and Margin Expansion: - Kuaishou plans to increase capex for FY25 to RMB 14 billion from RMB 12 billion - Adjusted operating profit expected to rise 28% YoY in 2025E, driven by disciplined S&M cost control and operational efficiency [12][19] 3. Kling Revenue Outlook: - FY25 revenue guidance for Kling raised to US$140 million (from US$125 million) - Anticipated flat/slightly up QoQ revenue for 4Q25, with potential for upward revision [19][20] 4. AI Strategy: - Kuaishou is focused on investing in multi-modal training and expanding Kling's use cases - Video generation is in early stages, with a rapidly expanding total addressable market (TAM) [19][20] Risks and Considerations - Key Downside Risks: 1. Slower-than-expected ad budget recovery 2. Weaker-than-expected Kling monetization 3. Slower growth in user engagement 4. Lower-than-expected profitability 5. Weaker-than-expected AI progress [21] Valuation and Target Price - 12-Month Target Price: Unchanged at HK$83, based on a 14X 2026E P/E [1][20] - Current Price: HK$63.50, indicating a potential upside of 30.7% [1] Conclusion Kuaishou Technology is positioned to leverage AI advancements while maintaining a balance between investment and profitability. The company’s strategic focus on advertising growth and operational efficiency, alongside a robust outlook for its Kling segment, supports a positive investment thesis.