亚马逊：AWS能否在 2026 年实现 20% 中段增长？未交付订单显示可以

Summary of Amazon.com Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) - Market Cap: $2,443,084 million - Current Share Price: $222.55 - Price Target: $315.00, implying ~40% upside [6][4] Key Industry Insights - Industry: Cloud Computing (AWS) - Growth Projections: AWS is expected to achieve mid-20%+ revenue growth in 2026, which is above current estimates of 23% and the Street's estimate of 20% [1][3][4] - Backlog Analysis: The AWS backlog has been a significant driver of revenue growth, contributing approximately 35-40% of AWS revenue growth over the past three years [2][3] Core Points and Arguments - AWS Backlog Model: The introduction of an updated AWS backlog model indicates multiple paths to achieving mid-20%+ growth in 2026, driven by both backlog and non-backlog workloads [2][3] - Contract with OpenAI: A reported $38 billion contract with OpenAI is expected to positively impact the 4Q:25 backlog, contributing to revenue growth [3] - Revenue Recognition: Amazon does not disclose the percentage of AWS remaining performance obligations (RPO) expected to be recognized over specific time horizons, unlike competitors [2][10] - Performance Obligations: Approximately 25% of AWS RPO is recognized within the subsequent 12 months, and 50% within 24 months [2] Potential Risks - Revenue Recognition Uncertainty: The timing and recognition dynamics of RPO could reduce predictability in revenue growth estimates [10] - Slower Growth Risks: If the net backlog added in 2026 is lower than expected, or if the pipeline of deals slows down, it could pose risks to growth estimates [10][11] - Capacity Constraints: Delays in AWS's plans to double its current capacity by the end of 2027 could negatively impact growth [11] Upside Potential - Greater Backlog Growth: If the pace of AWS backlog deals signed exceeds expectations, it could drive upside to revenue growth estimates [12] - On-Demand Business Growth: Faster than expected growth in the on-demand business could also enhance overall revenue growth [12] Investment Thesis - Valuation: AMZN is currently trading at a ~50% discount to peers on a PEG basis, with faster AWS revenue growth seen as a key driver for multiple expansion [4][14] - High-Margin Businesses: Amazon's high-margin businesses are expected to drive greater profitability while continuing to invest in growth areas [20] - Recurring Revenue: Growth in Amazon Prime membership is anticipated to drive recurring revenue and a positive mix shift [20] Conclusion - Recommendation: The stock is rated as Overweight, with a price target of $315, indicating a strong potential for growth based on AWS performance and overall company strategy [6][4]