X Financial(US:XYF)2025-11-21 14:30Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, total net revenue reached RMB 1.96 billion, reflecting a 23.9% year-over-year increase but a 13.7% decline sequentially from Q2 [14][5] - Income from operations was RMB 331.9 million, down 29.9% year-over-year and 46.4% sequentially, primarily due to higher provisions for credit losses [15] - Net income was RMB 421.2 million, up 12.1% year-over-year but down 20.2% sequentially [15] - The delinquency rates increased, with the 31-60 day delinquency rate rising to 1.85% from 1.16% in Q2 and 1.02% a year ago, and the 91-180 day delinquency rate increasing to 3.52% from 2.91% in Q2 [6][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company facilitated and originated RMB 33.64 billion in loans, an 18.7% increase year-over-year but a 13.7% decline sequentially [4][11] - The outstanding loan balance at the end of the quarter was RMB 62.83 billion, up 37.3% from the previous year [11] - Approximately 3.48 million loans were facilitated, representing a 32% increase year-over-year, with an average loan size of RMB 9,654 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The active borrower base was approximately 2.44 million, which is 14.4% lower sequentially but 24.2% higher year-over-year [11] - The regulatory environment remains stringent, with a focus on consumer protection and responsible lending practices, impacting industry pricing and profitability [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is prioritizing asset quality and risk management over near-term volume expansion, reflecting a deliberate moderation in growth pace [4][19] - There is a commitment to maintaining a compliance-first mindset amid evolving regulatory standards, which is seen as a foundation for long-term stability [10][11] - The focus is on cost efficiency and disciplined execution, ensuring that expenses align with the current measured pace of activity [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects challenges to persist in the coming quarters but remains confident in the ability to navigate them with prudence and maintain profitability [19] - The outlook for Q4 2025 anticipates total loan facilitation in the range of RMB 21 billion to RMB 23 billion, reflecting a continued focus on asset quality and credit discipline [18] - The company acknowledges the potential for further increases in delinquency rates due to broader economic conditions but believes that tighter underwriting will lead to better quality vintages over time [35][36] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $67.9 million in shares under its buyback program, with about $48 million remaining under the existing plan [17][26] - The balance sheet remains strong, with total assets at RMB 14.69 billion, up 26.4% year-over-year, and total shareholders' equity at RMB 7.93 billion, up 15% year-over-year [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected take rate for Q4 given the current risk situation? - Management indicated that the new regulatory regime will likely have a material negative impact on volume, margin, and profitability, making it premature to discuss specific take rates [24][25] Question: Is the company considering returning more capital to shareholders given lower business volume? - Management confirmed that capital return remains a priority, with ongoing share repurchases and a commitment to maintain dividends despite industry-wide margin pressures [25][26] Question: How does management view the regulatory environment going into early 2026? - Management expressed uncertainty about future regulatory actions but emphasized a focus on compliance and consumer protection, which may lead to a cautious approach in loan origination [28][29] Question: What is the outlook on delinquencies? - Management acknowledged the uptick in delinquencies due to broader economic challenges but expects stabilization within one to two months as tighter underwriting takes effect [30][31][36]