全球市场回调，周期怎么看？

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Global Market Trends: Recent adjustments in global risk assets, particularly in US stocks and Bitcoin, with significant declines noted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below its upward trend line, but the Federal Reserve's signals of easing have reduced the risk of further declines in the short term [3][1]. Key Points by Industry Transportation Sector - Impact of Japan-China Relations: The transportation sector faced challenges due to reduced flights on Japan-China routes. However, the three major airlines were minimally affected as this route only accounts for a small percentage of their total flights. Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines experienced larger adjustments, while Huaxia Airlines remained unaffected [5][1]. Express Delivery Industry - October Data and Financial Performance: The express delivery sector showed positive trends with October data and ZTO's Q3 financial report. YTO Express had the fastest growth rate at 13%, while Shentong Express grew by over 4%, and Yunda Express saw a decline of 5%. The overall outlook for the sector remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth into Q1 2026 [6][1]. Shipping Industry - Freight Rates and Future Outlook: The shipping sector saw freight rates reach multi-year highs before a slight correction. The peak season may last longer than expected, with further potential for rate increases. Key companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping and Hainan Airlines [7][8]. Chemical Industry - Current Market Conditions: The CCPI index remained stable, while crude oil prices fell, leading to a decline in the chemical output index. The fourth quarter is typically a demand lull, with price sustainability needing validation in Q1 2026. Key sub-sectors include polyester filament and viscose staple fiber, with specific companies recommended for investment [11][12][17]. Lithium and Battery Materials - Price Increases and Demand: Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices surged to 167,000 CNY/ton, with significant increases in electrolyte and additive prices. The demand for energy storage is expected to drive profitability, with a recovery anticipated in 2026. Recommended companies include Sinoma Technology and Lianhua Technology [14][12]. Coal Industry - Market Performance and Future Expectations: The coal sector experienced a significant drop of 5.67%, with some companies like China Shenhua showing resilience. Despite short-term declines, the long-term fundamentals remain unchanged, and there are opportunities in quality stocks [21][22]. Organic Silicon and Soda Ash - Market Dynamics: The organic silicon industry reached a consensus on production cuts, with prices rising. The soda ash market saw price increases following production halts. Both sectors are expected to improve significantly by 2026, with key companies highlighted for investment [16][12]. Additional Insights - Investor Confidence: Jitu International's management has been actively repurchasing shares to bolster investor confidence, particularly in Southeast Asia and emerging markets [9][10]. - Investment Recommendations: The call emphasized focusing on high dividend-paying coal companies and other resilient sectors, suggesting a strategic approach to navigating potential market fluctuations [25][10]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape across various industries.