2026 全球宏观策略展望-两半故事，多条路径-2026 Global Macro Strategy Outlook -A Tale of Two Halves with More Than Two Paths

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Global Macro Strategy Outlook for 2026, particularly regarding interest rates and currency trends across G10 economies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Interest Rate Trends: - Lower G10 rates and a weaker US dollar are expected to persist into the first half of 2026, with a reversal anticipated around the US midterm elections in November 2026 [1][4][6] - US Treasury yields are forecasted to end 2026 at 4.05%, after reaching 3.75% by June [3][6] - The yield curve is expected to steepen further, particularly in the euro area where the ECB is projected to cut rates to 1.50% [3][6][18] 2. Currency Outlook: - The DXY is expected to decline by 5% to 94 in the first half of 2026 before rebounding in the second half [6][41] - Risk currencies like AUD and SEK are anticipated to lead gains, while USD/JPY is projected to fall to 140 due to declining US rates [6][41][47] 3. Inflation-Linked Bonds: - TIPS breakevens in the US are expected to tighten into mid-2026, with a widening anticipated by the end of the year as economic conditions improve [8] 4. Sovereign Supply Outlook: - Net coupon bond supply across the G7 is expected to decrease by 14% year-over-year, amounting to $2.45 trillion in 2026 [26][34] - The decrease in net issuance is anticipated across the US, euro area, Japan, and New Zealand [34] 5. Regional Specifics: - United States: The Fed is expected to cut rates to 3.125% in 1Q26, with 10-year Treasury yields projected to reach 3.75% in 1H26 [52][76] - Euro Area: The ECB's depo rate is expected to fall to 1.50%, with 10-year Bund yields projected to decline to 2.30% by 2Q26 [58] - United Kingdom: The Bank Rate is expected to reach 2.75% in 2026, with 10-year gilt yields around 3.9% [64] - Japan: JGB yields are expected to rise to 1.65% for 10-year bonds by 4Q26 [71] Other Important Insights 1. Market Dynamics: - The interplay between US and global rates will shape both rates and FX performance in 2026, with a focus on duration and curve trades over credit beta [25][40] - The anticipated fiscal policy changes could significantly impact investor expectations regarding sovereign supply [39] 2. Investment Strategies: - Preferred trades include long 5-year Treasuries and yield curve steepeners via options [57] - In the euro area, long positions in EU vs Germany in the 5-year sector are recommended as a carry play [62] 3. Risk Factors: - A potential mild US recession could lead to a significant drop in the funds rate, impacting Treasury yields [16][80] - The risk of a global risk-off episode could widen spreads beyond current expectations [21] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends in interest rates, currency movements, and investment strategies for 2026.