日本经济展望-2026-2028 年日本经济展望：向常态过渡-Japan Economic Perspectives_ Japan Economic Outlook 2026-2028_ Transition to Normal

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Japanese economy and its outlook from 2026 to 2028, highlighting the transition from "nominal stagnation" to "moderate but steady nominal growth" [2][10]. Core Economic Insights - Economic Paths: Japan faces two potential scenarios: a "virtuous cycle" of income and spending or a "stalling" scenario due to weak external demand and demographic challenges [2][10]. - Inflation Trends: Headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.1% in 2026 from 3.1% in 2025, while core-core CPI is projected to align with this trend [3][11]. - Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to continue normalizing its policy, with rate hikes anticipated to reach 1.5% by mid-2027 [4][11]. Fiscal Policy and Government Actions - Fiscal Expansion: The Takaichi administration is expected to implement a responsible fiscal policy aimed at boosting household purchasing power and corporate investment, potentially increasing GDP by 0.2 percentage points in 2026 [5][38][40]. - Budget Expectations: The supplementary budget for FY2025 and the initial budget for FY2026 are anticipated to be larger than previous estimates, with demands for ¥25 trillion (approximately 4% of GDP) [12][39]. Risks and Challenges - External Risks: Potential risks include a sharp drop in external demand due to an AI bubble burst and geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and Japan [7][13]. - Political Stability: The minority status of the Takaichi administration raises concerns about policy execution and the potential for a "Japan sell-off" if fiscal expansion is perceived as excessive [7][39]. Economic Growth Projections - GDP Growth: Real GDP is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2026, with a gradual recovery expected as external demand picks up from mid-2026 [9][11]. - Comparison with Global Growth: Japan's per capita GDP growth is projected at 1.6%, comparable to the US at 1.5% and the Euro area at 1.2% [37][41]. Corporate Sector Dynamics - Corporate Performance: The corporate sector has shown resilience, with high operating profits and continued capital expenditure driven by labor-saving needs and decarbonization efforts [87][88]. - Labor Share Concerns: The downward trend in the labor share ratio raises concerns about the distribution of corporate earnings to workers, which is crucial for sustaining economic growth [89][90]. Consumer Behavior and Household Sector - Consumption Growth: Private consumption is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2026, supported by rising disposable income, although caution remains due to historical low consumer confidence [61][79]. - Wage Growth: Nominal wage growth is projected to remain high, with real wages expected to increase as inflation stabilizes [55][58]. Trade and Export Outlook - Export Projections: Japanese goods exports are expected to decline temporarily due to US tariffs but are projected to recover by mid-2026 as US domestic demand improves [42][46]. - Trade Surplus: Japan's trade surplus with the US was historically high in 2024 but is expected to decline gradually due to falling nominal export prices [44][46]. Conclusion - The Japanese economy is at a critical juncture, with the potential for sustained growth contingent on effective fiscal policies, external demand recovery, and addressing demographic challenges [14][39].