小米-买入评级，逆风已可控

Xiaomi (1810 HK) Equity Research Summary Industry Overview - Industry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments - Company: Xiaomi Corporation Key Financial Highlights - 3Q25 Non-IFRS Net Profit: RMB 11.3 billion, up 81% year-on-year, exceeding consensus by 13% due to higher than expected EV average selling price (ASP) which increased by 9% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter [3][29] - EV Business: Achieved its first quarterly operating profit of RMB 0.7 billion in 3Q25, with vehicle deliveries increasing by 34% quarter-on-quarter [3][11] - Total Revenue: RMB 113.1 billion in 3Q25, a 22.3% increase year-on-year [29] Segment Performance Smartphone Segment - Revenue: RMB 45.97 billion, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year [29] - ASP Decline: From RMB 1,073 in 2Q25 to RMB 1,063 in 3Q25, with gross margin dropping from 11.5% to 11.1% [3][29] - Profitability Pressure: Expected due to rising memory costs; prioritizing ASP improvement over shipment growth [4][11] IoT and Lifestyle Products - Revenue Growth: Slowed to 5.7% year-on-year, impacted by reduced shipments of smart large home appliances due to subsidy cuts and increased competition [3][4] - Gross Margin Recovery: Increased by 1.4 percentage points sequentially [3] EV Segment - Revenue: RMB 29.01 billion, a significant increase of 199.2% year-on-year [29] - Delivery Goal: On track to meet 2025 vehicle delivery target of 350,000 units, with monthly deliveries expected to rise from approximately 30,000 in July to over 40,000 by October 2025 [4][11] Strategic Insights - Premiumisation Strategy: Aimed at alleviating cost pressures in the smartphone segment [4][11] - Product Mix Optimization: To mitigate the impact of subsidy reductions in the IoT segment [4] Valuation and Estimates - Target Price: Decreased to HKD 62.80 from HKD 65.40, implying a 54% upside from the current share price of HKD 40.78 [5][11] - Net Profit Estimates: Lowered by 3%, 6%, and 3% for 2025-2027, respectively, due to reduced revenue estimates [5][30] - Valuation Method: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach; applying a 25x target PE for legacy businesses and DCF for the EV business [5][32] Risks and Challenges - Component Shortages: Potential revenue caps due to shortages in key semiconductor components [40] - Competition: Increased competition in IoT and internet services from established players like Huawei and Lenovo [40] - FX Volatility: Risks associated with foreign exchange fluctuations as Xiaomi expands in overseas markets [40] Conclusion - Xiaomi is positioned for growth in its EV segment while facing challenges in its smartphone and IoT businesses. The company’s strategic focus on premiumisation and product mix optimization is crucial for navigating current market pressures. The revised target price reflects a cautious outlook amid anticipated cost pressures and competitive dynamics.