ABF 基板供需及PCB-人工智能仍是需求驱动力；覆铜板（CCL）供应及中国同业对比-ABF substrate S_D & PCB_ AI still demand driver; cloth_CCL supply & China comps

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Technology Hardware - Asia-Pacific, specifically focusing on ABF substrate and PCB markets - Key Drivers: Continued demand from datacenter investments, particularly in AI and compute sectors Core Insights 1. Demand Growth: - AI server demand is projected to grow by over 25% from CY25 to CY27, significantly impacting the ABF substrate market [1][2] - Server accelerators and GPUs are expected to be the main growth drivers, with their mix in demand projected at 32% in 2025, 36% in 2026, and 43% in 2027 [2][15] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics: - An oversupply of 6% is expected in 2025, followed by undersupply of 1% in 2026 and 6% in 2027 [2][10] - Ibiden aims to increase its capacity for GPU package substrates to 1.4x by FY3/26 and 2.3x by FY3/28 [2] 3. Company Ratings and Price Objectives: - Price objectives for Unimicron, NYPCB, and Kinsus have been raised to NT$150, NT$130, and NT$110 respectively, while maintaining an Underperform rating due to competitive pressures [1][9] - Ibiden maintains a Buy rating due to its technological strength in the high-end market [1] 4. Competitive Landscape: - Taiwan companies are losing market share to Chinese competitors due to faster production ramp-up and aggressive capacity expansion [4] - Unimicron's share loss in NVIDIA is highlighted as a significant concern [4] 5. Material Supply Insights: - Ibiden does not foresee major supply issues into FY3/26 and plans to diversify supply in FY3/27 [3] - Non-NVIDIA customers are adapting to substrate supply from non-Japanese vendors [3] Financial Projections 1. Earnings Estimates: - Unimicron's 2026/27 EPS estimates have been raised by 9-10% and 2-8% respectively, reflecting a better margin outlook due to price hikes [1][22] - The gross margin for Unimicron is expected to improve to 19.9% by 2027, up from 18.7% [22] 2. Comparison with Consensus: - BofA's estimates for Unimicron are 2% to 4% below consensus for 2026 and 2027 operating profit due to conservative gross margin assumptions [24][25] Additional Insights - Technological Advancements: The report emphasizes the importance of technological strength in maintaining competitive advantage in the high-end substrate market [1] - Market Adaptation: Non-NVIDIA customers are increasingly reliant on alternative supply sources, indicating a shift in the supply chain dynamics [3] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the industry dynamics, company performance, and financial projections.