中国化工行业：MDI、制冷剂、电解液及钛白粉专家电话会议核心要点-China Chemical Sector_ MDI, refrigerant, electrolyte and TiO2 experts call takeaways

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call on the China Chemical Sector Industry Overview - Industry Focus: China Chemical Sector, specifically MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), refrigerants, electrolytes, and TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) [2][3][4][5] MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) - Price Trends: pMDI prices have decreased year-to-date (YTD), averaging Rmb15,986/t, down 6% YoY, with a forecast range of Rmb14,500-16,000/t for 2026 [8][11] - Supply Dynamics: Expected capacity additions in 2026 include Wanhua (700ktpa), BASF (160ktpa), and Covestro (40ktpa) [9] - Demand Outlook: Modest domestic demand growth anticipated in 2026, with a projected consumption growth of 2-6% for major downstream applications [10] - Export Challenges: Exports expected to decline to ~0.8mt in 2025, primarily due to reduced shipments to the US [10] Refrigerants - Pricing Divergence: Significant price variations observed YTD, with R32 and R134a prices increasing by 57% and 47% YoY, respectively, while R22 prices fell due to weak demand [12][15] - Future Price Projections: R32 and R134a prices expected to reach Rmb69,500/t and Rmb63,500/t by end-2026, respectively [14] - Demand Risks: Potential downside risks from new air conditioning demand and increased overseas capacity, particularly in India [15] Electrolytes - Supply-Demand Balance: Anticipated moderation in supply-demand imbalance for LiPF6 in 2026, with a price range forecast of Rmb80,000-90,000/t [16][17] - Capacity Growth: Expected capacity growth of 6.8% in 2026, with a slowdown to ~5.4% CAGR from 2026-2030 [17] - Additives Pricing: Significant price increases for electrolyte additives noted, with vinylene carbonate rising to Rmb108,000/t [18] TiO2 (Titanium Dioxide) - Market Conditions: Domestic TiO2 producers facing losses due to oversupply and high costs, with average prices projected to decline 3% YoY to Rmb13,500/t in 2026 [5][23] - Capacity Additions: Anticipated new capacity of 1.12mtpa in 2026, with 200ktpa expected to come online early in the year [21] - Export Recovery: Mild recovery in TiO2 export volumes expected, driven by global demand growth and potential changes in India's anti-dumping policies [22] Additional Insights - Risks in the Chemical Sector: Key risks include price volatility due to fluctuations in oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainties affecting demand, and rapid capacity expansions leading to oversupply [24] - Analyst Insights: The opinions expressed by experts do not necessarily reflect the views of UBS, and the firm disclaims responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided [7]