生物制药 - 初级保健医生对口服 GLP-1 类药物的展望-Biopharma-Primary Care Physician Outlook for oral GLP-1s

Summary of the Conference Call on Oral GLP-1s Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the biopharma industry, specifically the market for oral GLP-1 medications in North America, particularly for obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) [1][2]. Key Companies Involved - Eli Lilly (LLY): Expected to launch Orforglipron in Q1 2026. - Novo Nordisk (NVO): Expected to launch high-dose oral Semaglutide in Q4 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights and Projections - Market Growth: The GLP-1 market is projected to grow significantly, with penetration among obese patients expected to rise from 25% to 40% within a year, and T2D patients from 35% to nearly 50% [11][18]. - Eli Lilly's Market Share: LLY's share in obesity is projected to grow from 35% to 42%, while NVO's share is expected to decline from 46% to 44% [12][24]. - Novo Nordisk's Market Share: NVO is anticipated to face share pressure, particularly in T2D, where its share is expected to drop from 50% to 44% [15][32]. Survey Insights - A proprietary AlphaWise survey of ~200 US primary care physicians (PCPs) indicates: - LLY's Orforglipron could represent ~30% of LLY's total GLP-1 mix a year after launch [4]. - Orforglipron is expected to capture 12% share among obese GLP-1 patients and 13% share among T2D patients [16][31]. - High-dose oral Semaglutide is projected to capture 7% share among obese patients [23]. Financial Projections - LLY's Orforglipron is modeled to achieve worldwide sales of $757 million in 2026 and $4.4 billion in 2027, surpassing consensus estimates [4]. - In contrast, NVO's Rybelsus is projected to hold steady with a slight increase from 7% to 9% in T2D share [32]. Physician Preferences - Among surveyed PCPs, 51% prefer NVO's high-dose oral Semaglutide for obesity, while 50% favor LLY's Orforglipron for T2D [40]. - Familiarity with NVO's oral high-dose Semaglutide is higher (52%) compared to LLY's Orforglipron (37%) [46]. Barriers to Prescribing - Cost and insurance coverage are significant barriers for prescribing Rybelsus, cited by 83% of physicians, followed by gastrointestinal side effects (49%) and lower potency (45%) [41][48]. Additional Considerations - Physicians express interest in the new oral options but have concerns regarding cost, long-term safety data, and gastrointestinal side effects for both Orforglipron and high-dose oral Semaglutide [50][51]. - The survey results suggest potential upside to consensus forecasts for Wegovy Pill, with estimates of $370 million versus consensus of $630 million [9]. Conclusion - The upcoming launches of oral GLP-1 medications by LLY and NVO are expected to significantly impact the market dynamics for obesity and T2D treatments, with LLY poised for substantial share growth while NVO may face challenges in maintaining its market position [2][14].