电池金属分析_锂_储能（ESS）热潮收紧市场，2026 年上半年价格将维持高位-Battery Metals Analyst_ Lithium_ ESS Boom Tightens Market and Will Keep Prices High In H1 2026

Summary of Lithium Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the lithium market, particularly driven by the demand for Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and the impact of supply constraints in China [2][3][12]. Key Insights - Lithium Price Trends: Lithium carbonate prices in China surged from approximately $9,200 per ton in mid-September to over $11,000 per ton recently. This price increase is attributed to a tightening market balance due to stronger-than-expected ESS demand and temporary supply cuts from lepidolite mines in China [2][3][12]. - Price Forecasts: - For H1 2026, prices are expected to remain firm at $11,000 per ton, before dropping to $9,500 per ton in H2 2026. This is an upward revision from a previous average forecast of $8,900 per ton for 2026 [2][6][19]. - By 2027, prices are projected to stabilize around $9,250 per ton, with a potential need for supply cuts to prevent unsustainable inventory levels [2][19]. Demand Dynamics - ESS Demand Growth: The demand forecast for ESS lithium consumption has been significantly upgraded to 589 GWh in 2025 and 736 GWh in 2026, up from previous estimates of 275 GWh and 413 GWh, respectively. This indicates a material increase in underlying demand [12][15]. - Global Lithium Demand: Total lithium demand is expected to rise by 140,000 tons in 2025 and 209,000 tons in 2026, reflecting a 9% and 8% increase, respectively [15][19]. Supply Considerations - Supply Growth: Supply growth is anticipated to accelerate to 27% year-over-year in 2026, driven by the resumption of CATL's lepidolite operations and increased spodumene production. This is a significant increase compared to the 12% growth expected in 2025 [6][19]. - Inventory Days: Inventory days of demand cover are projected to fall to 61 days in 2025, down from 89 days previously forecasted. This indicates a tighter market balance [6][19]. Market Outlook - Long-term Market Balance: The lithium market is expected to remain in a low-for-longer phase relative to the highs of 2022/23, with supply projected to exceed demand by 18% in 2028 unless producers limit expansions [19]. - Future Price Trajectory: Prices are expected to stabilize within the lower end of the orderly regime range, with forecasts of $9,500 per ton in 2028 and $10,500 per ton in 2029, as the market transitions towards levels that support project advancements [19]. Risks and Considerations - Upside Risks: Potential upside risks to the price forecast include delays in the restart of lepidolite mines in China or stronger-than-expected ESS growth, which could tighten inventory cover and push prices higher [20][19]. Conclusion - The lithium market is currently experiencing a tightening phase driven by robust ESS demand and supply constraints. While prices are expected to remain high in the near term, long-term forecasts suggest a need for supply adjustments to maintain market balance.