亚太半导体行业：技术与产能路线图持续推进，夯实人工智能增长前景-Advancing technology and capacity roadmap solidifies AI growth outlook

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Research Industry Overview - AI Demand: AI compute is projected to account for 37% of global semiconductor revenue by 2025, up from 10% in 2020. Data center investments by hyperscalers are expected to grow at a 24% CAGR, reaching US$1.2 trillion by 2030, which will drive high-performance computing (HPC) demand and sustain order backlogs for advanced nodes and packaging [1][2][3] - Traditional Tech Devices: Stabilization in units for traditional tech devices (smartphones, PCs, TVs) is noted, while automotive and industrial applications are beginning to recover. Healthy inventory levels suggest a potential reacceleration as edge AI technology proliferates [1] Supply Growth and Investment - Foundry and OSAT Investment: Foundry and OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) investments are expected to accelerate through 2026-2027, with global foundry capex projected to grow 22% YoY to US$71 billion in 2026, driven by TSMC's expansion [2] - Capital Intensity: Front-end manufacturing capital intensity is expected to remain around 35%, while back-end capex is projected to grow 45% YoY to US$19 billion in 2026, with capital intensity rising to 24% [2] TSMC's Role - Market Position: TSMC is positioned as a core enabler of structural expansion in the semiconductor industry, with sales projected to grow at a 21% CAGR from 2025 to 2027. HPC/AI is expected to reach 70% of TSMC's sales by 2027 [3] - Gross Margin and Operating Margin: TSMC's gross margin and operating margin are expected to sustain at approximately 60% and 52%, respectively, due to a favorable business mix that offsets rising costs from capital expenditures [3] Valuation and Selectivity - Valuation Bifurcation: The semiconductor sector's valuation is expected to remain bifurcated, with AI-driven leaders at the upper end of their valuation range. TSMC is highlighted as a dominant technology player with potential for re-rating [4] - Stock Picks: Preferred stocks include TSMC, Chroma, GPTC, and MediaTek, while caution is advised for UMC, Globalwafers, and Novatek due to their exposure to mature tech products [4] Additional Insights - HPC Market Growth: The HPC semiconductor market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 31% through 2027, indicating strong demand for advanced computing solutions [22] - Industry Capacity Trends: The industry is seeing meaningful expansion in CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity from 2024, which is expected to unlock additional demand potential [27] - Customer Revenue Contribution: TSMC's top customers have consistently outperformed smaller ones, indicating a concentration of revenue among leading firms [18] This summary encapsulates the key points from the research on the semiconductor industry, focusing on AI demand, supply growth, TSMC's pivotal role, valuation dynamics, and market trends.