Summary of GDS Holdings Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - Company: GDS Holdings Ltd - Industry: Greater China Telecoms - Market Cap: Rmb40,784 million - Current Stock Price: US$29.02 (as of November 18, 2025) - Price Target: US$54.00, indicating an upside of 86% from the current price [8][66] Financial Performance - 3Q25 Results: - Revenue: Rmb2.9 billion, up 10.2% YoY, in line with estimates [3] - Adjusted EBITDA: Rmb1.3 billion, up 11.4% YoY, 1% above forecast [3] - New Orders: ~30MW across four sites in 3Q25, with YTD new orders reaching 230MW [3] - Outlook for 2026: - Expected new orders close to 280MW for the full year, implying 50MW in 4Q25 [4] - Anticipated large-scale procurement of 100MW+ per tender for AI demand [4] - Management is optimistic about the China business and is actively sourcing new land [4] Investment Cycle and Returns - C-REITs Impact: - GDS sees a clear path for a five- to six-year data center investment cycle with mid-teens unleveraged IRR and close to 20% leveraged IRR [5] - Plans for a Rmb4-6 billion enterprise value asset package for the first follow-on offering [5] Key Metrics and Projections - 2026 Estimates: - Revenue: Rmb12,532 million - EBITDA: Rmb5,469 million - EPS: Expected to improve from (2.95) Rmb in 2025 to (1.86) Rmb in 2026 [8] - Market Share Recovery: - 2026E MSR could see a 3-4% YoY decline due to contract renewals and dilution from new projects [4] Risks and Considerations - Upside Risks: - Progress in asset monetization via REITs at accretive valuations [12] - Volume recovery in China leading to pricing rebound [12] - Downside Risks: - Potential reduction in capex from hyperscalers, particularly in AI investments [12] - Increased competition and pricing compression [12] Conclusion - GDS Holdings Ltd is positioned for growth with a strong outlook for 2026, driven by domestic chip supply improvements and significant new orders anticipated. The company is leveraging C-REITs for enhanced returns and is optimistic about its business prospects in China. However, investors should remain cautious of potential risks related to market competition and changes in hyperscaler investment strategies.
万国数据-2025 年第三季度业绩符合预期；静待 2026 年订单