中国 - 房贷减免：下一个住房救命稻草？-China-Mortgage Relief The Next Housing Lifeline

Summary of the Conference Call on Mortgage Relief in China Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese housing market and the potential for mortgage relief measures to stabilize housing prices and listings [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Current Housing Market Conditions: - Housing prices in China have seen a significant decline, leading to a feedback loop of "higher listings/lower prices" which exacerbates deflationary pressures [3][10]. - A deeper downturn in the housing market poses risks to the forecast of shallower deflation in 2026 and lowflation in 2027 [3][10]. 2. Proposed Policy Measures: - The Chinese government is considering interest subsidies to reduce mortgage costs without negatively impacting banks' net interest margins (NIM) [4][10]. - This approach is seen as a targeted rate cut that avoids the limitations of conventional rate cuts [4][10]. 3. Cost Implications: - A broad-based 100 basis points (bps) subsidy could cost approximately Rmb 400 billion annually, while a targeted subsidy for new mortgages would cost around Rmb 100 billion per year [6][10]. 4. Policy Design Considerations: - The effectiveness of the subsidy program will depend on its scope (whether it covers new or existing mortgages), magnitude (the size of the subsidy), and duration [5][10][11]. - A sufficiently broad and generous program could support new home sales and alleviate pressures in the secondary market, helping to stabilize prices [10][12]. 5. Potential Impact: - If implemented broadly (covering all mortgages) and generously (100 bps for five years), the program could significantly boost new home sales and ease supply pressures in the secondary market, thereby reducing price headwinds [12][10]. - This would align with the expectation of narrower deflation in 2026 and a clearer exit from deflation in 2027, particularly as housing prices stabilize in higher-tier cities [12][10]. 6. Risks to Monitor: - A narrow scope of the subsidy (only covering new mortgages) may lead to limited improvements in new home sales, failing to offset secondary market listings and providing minimal support to prices [13][10]. - Delays in execution and entrenched expectations of falling prices could undermine the effectiveness of the policy [13][10]. Other Important Considerations - The program's design and implementation details remain unclear, making immediate action unlikely [10][11]. - The policy direction is consistent with the forecast for "less deflation" in 2026 and a transition towards lowflation in 2027 [10][12].