台积电 - 2025 年亚太峰会反馈

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company Overview - Company: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - Ticker: 2330.TW - Market Cap: NT$37,725,172 million - Current Price: NT$1,455.00 - Price Target: NT$1,688.00 (16% upside) [6][6] Industry Context - Industry: Greater China Technology Semiconductors - Industry View: Attractive [6][6] Key Takeaways - Growth Outlook: TSMC is expected to experience very strong growth in 2026, with a projected revenue growth close to mid-30% year-over-year [8][8]. - AI Demand: The company is addressing strong AI demand by expanding its 3nm wafer capacity and CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) [4][4]. Management indicated potential upside to a mid-40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI semiconductors from 2024 to 2029 [8][8]. - Capacity Management: TSMC is maintaining capacity discipline while expanding to meet customer demand, particularly in AI semiconductors [8][8]. The company emphasizes transparency in capacity allocation to its customers [8][8]. - Gross Margin: TSMC aims to maintain a gross margin of 53% or higher in the long term, with a slight dilution expected from overseas operations [8][8]. - Wafer Pricing: Pricing will reflect TSMC's value proposition, indicating a strategic approach to pricing in response to demand [8][8]. Financial Projections - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: NT$45.25 - 2025: NT$63.57 - 2026: NT$76.39 - 2027: NT$102.86 [6][6] - Net Income Projections (in NT$ billion): - 2024: 1,173 - 2025: 1,648 - 2026: 1,981 - 2027: 2,667 [9][9] Risks - Upside Risks: - Higher-than-expected growth in AI semiconductor demand - Increased outsourcing from Intel CPU [12][12] - Downside Risks: - Weakening demand for leading-edge technologies - Significant cost increases for overseas fabs [12][12] Analyst Ratings - Stock Rating: Overweight (OW) [6][6] - Sector Top Pick: TSMC is reiterated as a top pick in the semiconductor sector [2][2]. Conclusion TSMC is positioned for strong growth driven by AI demand and strategic capacity expansion. The company maintains a focus on gross margin and pricing strategy while navigating potential risks in the semiconductor market.