美国经济-12 月维持鸽派立场，明年重启降息-US Economics Weekly-Dovish hold in December, cuts resume next year

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economy and its outlook for 2026, particularly in relation to monetary policy and labor market dynamics [1][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - Economic Growth and Inflation: The US economy is expected to experience moderate growth and decelerating inflation in 2026, with a forecasted real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027 [7][16]. - Federal Reserve Actions: Anticipation of three additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in January, April, and June 2026 as the labor market continues to soften [3][15][29]. - Labor Market Trends: The labor market is characterized by a low-hire/low-fire environment, with an expected increase in the unemployment rate to 4.7% by 2Q 2026 [12][29]. - Consumer Spending: Consumer spending is projected to recover gradually, with real consumption rising by 1.6% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, although it remains constrained by slow hiring and tariff impacts [10][11]. - AI Spending Impact: AI-related spending is expected to contribute approximately 0.4 percentage points to growth in 2026 and 2027, accounting for about 20% of the overall growth forecast [11][23]. Additional Important Insights - Inflation Dynamics: Inflation is projected to peak at 2.8% and 3.1% for headline and core PCE inflation in 1Q 2026, before decelerating to 2.5% and 2.6% by 4Q 2026 [13][14]. - Tariff Effects: The effective tariff rate is expected to rise to approximately 16%, impacting consumer prices and overall economic activity [32][33]. - Public Policy Landscape: The report indicates a shift from a fluid policy environment to a more stable one, with significant implications for trade, immigration, deregulation, and fiscal policies [8][9]. - Alternate Economic Scenarios: Three alternate scenarios are presented: demand-driven upside, productivity-driven upside, and a mild recession, each with different implications for growth and inflation [17][18][19]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for the US economy in 2026 suggests a transition towards modest growth and easing inflation, influenced by labor market conditions and fiscal policies, with significant contributions expected from AI-related spending. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will play a crucial role in navigating these economic dynamics.