总量金工基金银行联合展望 - 2026年度策略报告汇报会议

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the A-share market in 2026, predicting a slow bull market with increased difficulty in making profits, necessitating a focus on fundamental improvements and validations [1][2][15]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Outlook: The A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on technology sectors while being cautious of structural and phase adjustment risks [2][9][15]. - Sector Preferences: The preferred sectors for 2026 include new energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military machinery, and computing [3][10][15]. - Investment Themes: Key investment themes revolve around the US-China competition, particularly in AI and new energy, with significant advancements in domestic technologies such as large model algorithms and solid-state batteries [13][14][15]. - IPO Market Dynamics: The IPO market in 2025 saw a resurgence in new listings, with an average first-day increase of 244.78% and no new stocks experiencing a decline [16][24]. The number of new IPOs increased, particularly on the main board and the North Exchange [16][21]. - Banking Sector Outlook: The banking sector is expected to maintain high dividend yields, with credit growth projected at 7-8% and a narrowing of interest margin declines [4][36][39]. The overall provisioning is deemed sufficient to manage potential risks [42][43]. Important but Overlooked Content - Valuation Levels: Current valuation levels of major indices are at historical highs, indicating a potential risk of a market peak if short-term gains are too rapid [5][6]. - Market Phases: The market is currently in the "economic verification phase," characterized by index fluctuations and slowing growth, with frequent style switches due to earnings realizations in overvalued sectors [6][7]. - Resource Sector Potential: If the technology sector adjusts, resource products may become the new focus, benefiting from global monetary easing and supply-demand imbalances [12][15]. - Non-Interest Income: The banking sector's non-interest income is expected to continue benefiting from the bond market, although reliance solely on this income is cautioned against [40][41]. - Asset Quality Concerns: Despite the overall stability, there are concerns regarding real estate-related risks and the potential exposure of certain loan projects [42][43]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and strategies for the A-share market and specific sectors in 2026.